The Nigerian Upstream Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reports a 0.7% month-on-month decline in crude oil production, including condensates, for October, reaching 1.56 million barrels per day (mb/d) compared to September’s 1.57 mb/d.
The dip is attributed primarily to underperformance at the Forcados and Escravos production terminals, offsetting the notable growth at the Bonga terminal, which achieved a 43-month high with an 18.9% month-on-month increase.
Despite ongoing efforts to combat theft and vandalism, frequent pipeline leaks and intermittent shutdowns for maintenance at oil terminals pose significant risks to future production.
The projection for the average crude oil production in 2023 is maintained at 1.42 mb/d, offering a modest improvement from 2022’s estimated volume of 1.37 mb/d. Consequently, the government’s oil revenue performance is expected to remain uninspiring in the short term.
Fitch Ratings Affirms Nigeria’s “B-” IDR with Stable Outlook
Fitch Ratings has upheld Nigeria’s long-term foreign-currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at “B-” with a stable outlook. The decision considers Nigeria’s substantial economy, well-developed domestic debt market, and significant oil and gas reserves.
Acknowledging commendable progress in reforms, Fitch notes concerns about potential regression, raising doubts about sustaining positive momentum. Constraints include weak governance, consistently low non-oil revenue, high inflation rates, and an inadequate exchange-rate framework. Despite ongoing reforms, Fitch underscores the risk of policy reversals, emphasizing the socio-economic challenges involved. While anticipating an improvement in credit ratings by 2024, the outlook hinges on the persistence of reform efforts and mitigating potential policy setbacks.
