The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) injected an estimated $536.6 million into the foreign exchange (FX) market in November in a bid to stabilise the naira and ease liquidity pressures. Despite the aggressive intervention, the naira closed the month slightly weaker at N1,447.95 per dollar at the official window.
The apex bank began the month with a $50 million intervention to calm demand pressures in the FX market. However, this failed to prevent a marginal depreciation of the currency, with the naira weakening by 0.2 per cent to close at N1,441.89/$1.
Midway through the month, the naira rebounded on the back of rising non-oil export inflows, improved investor confidence, and another $50 million injection from the CBN. This supported a 0.5 per cent appreciation, pushing the naira to N1,435/$1.
However, renewed demand pressure from corporates seeking to fund imports ahead of the festive season soon eroded those gains. This overwhelmed a further $250 million intervention to deposit money banks, forcing the naira to depreciate by 1.5 per cent to N1,457.38/$1.
In the final week of November, the currency regained some ground, appreciating by 0.7 per cent to settle at N1,447.95/$1. The recovery was supported by a strong $186.6 million FX injection from the CBN, alongside inflows from offshore investors, which helped offset strong domestic demand.
Overall, the naira traded at N1,447.95/$1 on November 28, compared with N1,438/$1 at the start of the month and N1,427.5/$1 as of October 31, underscoring the fragile stability of the FX market despite sustained monetary tightening.
In a bid to strengthen transparency and boost market confidence, the CBN announced last week that it is finalising a revised foreign exchange manual, which will soon be released.
CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, disclosed this at the annual Bankers’ Dinner organised by the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) in Lagos. According to him, the revised manual will introduce clearer operational rules, stronger documentation requirements, expanded market participation, and enhanced surveillance across the electronic FX management system.
The move is part of broader reforms aimed at stabilising the naira and deepening the foreign exchange market.
Analysts Project Naira at N1,458/$1 by Year-End
Meanwhile, analysts have projected that the naira could close the year around N1,458/$1, though they warned that short-term volatility remains likely as festive season imports rise and global uncertainties persist.
“While the risks remain evident, we now again lower our year-end FX forecasts. We see the naira at N1,458.8 against the dollar by this year-end and N1,473.0/$1 by December 2026,” analysts at Standard Bank stated.
They added that without sustained FX interventions and steady inflows, renewed pressure could return to the market in the weeks ahead.
