Nigeria’s spending on the importation of refined petroleum products has declined sharply by 54 per cent in two years, falling from $14.58bn in the first nine months of 2023 to $6.71bn in the corresponding period of 2025, according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Balance of Payments report.
A comparative analysis of the CBN’s 2023 and 2024 full-year data, alongside the Q3 2025 Balance of Payments presentation released on Monday, showed a sustained moderation in fuel importation over the period under review.
The data indicated that fuel import costs fell from $14.58bn between January and September 2023 to $11.38bn in the same period of 2024, representing a decline of $3.20bn or 21.9 per cent. The downward trend accelerated further in 2025, with import spending dropping by $4.67bn, or 41 per cent, to $6.71bn within the first nine months of the year.
Overall, Nigeria spent $7.87bn less on refined petroleum product imports in the first nine months of 2025 than it did in the corresponding period of 2023, underscoring a significant easing of foreign exchange outflows linked to fuel imports.
The CBN data also showed a 41 per cent year-on-year decline in refined petroleum product imports by the third quarter of 2025, signalling early signs of import substitution as new and rehabilitated refineries begin to scale up operations.
The reduced foreign exchange spending comes amid broader structural reforms and market adjustments aimed at easing pressure on Nigeria’s external reserves and stabilising the naira. For decades, the country relied heavily on imports, particularly refined petroleum products, due to limited domestic production capacity, weak industrial output, and chronic underinvestment in infrastructure. This dependence made fuel imports one of the largest drains on foreign exchange earnings.
The removal of petrol subsidies in 2023 marked a major turning point. Higher pump prices curbed fuel consumption and reduced arbitrage-driven demand, while stricter foreign exchange management by the Central Bank of Nigeria helped moderate import volumes and speculative FX demand associated with fuel importation.
Another key factor has been the gradual expansion of domestic supply in the downstream oil sector. Industry experts say competition has intensified as marketers struggle to compete with supplies from the $20bn Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lekki, alongside increased output from rehabilitated local refineries.
Despite the sharp decline, the data showed that Nigerian marketers still spent an estimated $6.71bn importing refined petroleum products during the review period, highlighting the country’s continued reliance on foreign fuel supplies.
Although quarterly fuel import bills declined consistently, the CBN figures pointed to persistent structural weaknesses in the downstream oil sector, suggesting that sustained investment and operational efficiency will be required to achieve long-term self-sufficiency in refined petroleum products.
