The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has acknowledged the positive contribution of Nigeria’s non-oil sector to the country’s economic growth in the second half of 2025, despite challenges in crude oil production.
In its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released on Wednesday, OPEC said Nigeria’s economy demonstrated resilience in the latter half of the year, supported by strong non-oil activity.
“Nigeria’s economy showed resilience in 2H25, posting sound growth despite global challenges, as strength in the non-oil economy partly offset slower growth in the oil sector,” the organisation stated.
The report, citing primary sources, noted that Nigeria’s crude oil production declined slightly to 1.422 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2025, compared with 1.436 million bpd in November.
According to OPEC data, Nigeria last met its production quota in July 2025, with output remaining below target from August through December. Quarterly figures also showed a steady decline throughout the year: 1.468 million bpd in Q1, 1.481 million bpd in Q2, 1.444 million bpd in Q3, and 1.42 million bpd in Q4.
Despite weaker oil output, OPEC highlighted improvements in domestic and external economic conditions, driven by cooling inflation, a firmer naira, lower refined fuel imports, and stronger remittance inflows.
The report projected that inflation would continue to decelerate, supported by previous monetary tightening, currency strength, and seasonal harvest effects, although it noted that monetary policy remains restrictive.
“Seasonally adjusted real GDP growth at market prices moderated to stand at 3.9%, y-o-y, in 3Q25, down from 4.2% in 2Q25. Nonetheless, this is still a healthy and robust growth level, supported by strengthening non-oil activity,” OPEC said. It added that non-oil sector growth rose by 0.3 percentage points to 3.9% year-on-year, while headline inflation eased for the eighth consecutive month to 14.5% in November, down from 16.1% in October.
Despite the sustained disinflation trend, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) maintained its policy rate at 27% in December, citing its commitment to achieving low and stable inflation and expecting earlier tightening measures to further reduce price pressures.
OPEC observed that a stronger naira, easing food prices due to harvests, and a slowdown in core inflation suggest gradually fading underlying pressures.
However, the organisation cautioned that while preserving recent disinflation gains is crucial, the persistently high policy rate — implying real interest rates of about 12% — could weigh on aggregate demand in the near term.
