Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has revealed that Nigeria supplied only 28.5 million barrels of crude oil to domestic refineries in the first quarter of 2026, significantly below the 61.9 million barrels allocated for the period.
Data released by the Commission on April 5 showed that while 61.9 million barrels were earmarked under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO), oil producers collectively offered a higher volume of 68.7 million barrels.
Despite this, actual deliveries to local refineries fell sharply short, with supply conversion rates estimated at between 36 and 46 per cent.
The Commission attributed the shortfall largely to pricing disagreements between producers and domestic refiners, noting that transactions operate under a “willing buyer, willing seller” framework.
The DCSO policy, introduced under the Petroleum Industry Act 2021, is designed to ensure adequate feedstock supply to domestic refineries and reduce reliance on imported petroleum products.
A breakdown of the figures highlights persistent gaps throughout the quarter.
In January, 22.6 million barrels were allocated, with producers offering 25.3 million barrels. However, only 9.2 million barrels were delivered.
In February, allocation stood at 20.5 million barrels, while producers offered 19.8 million barrels. Actual supply dipped slightly to 9.1 million barrels.
By March, deliveries improved marginally to 10.1 million barrels, against an allocation of 18.8 million barrels and offers of 23.6 million barrels.
For the second quarter, the Commission has allocated 55.1 million barrels for domestic refining, while producers have pledged to supply 58.8 million barrels.
The supply challenges come amid fluctuating oil production levels. According to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Nigeria’s crude output stood at 1.459 million barrels per day in January 2026, dropped to about 1.31 million bpd in February, and recovered slightly to 1.38 million bpd in March.
The country also recorded a production shortfall of about 16.6 million barrels in the first two months of the year, underscoring a gap between actual output and government projections.
Within that period, Nigeria produced approximately 92 million barrels of crude oil and condensate, below the projected 108.6 million barrels based on the Federal Government’s 2026 benchmark of 1.84 million barrels per day.
The continued mismatch between crude allocation, supply offers, and actual deliveries raises concerns about the effectiveness of domestic supply policies and the ability of local refineries to secure adequate feedstock.
