Nigeria’s businesses expect the naira to gradually strengthen against the United States dollar in the coming months, even as high borrowing costs, insecurity, and multiple taxation continue to weigh on economic activity.
This is according to the latest Business Expectations Survey released by the Central Bank of Nigeria.
The survey, which captured business sentiment for April 2026, showed that firms remain cautiously optimistic about the economy despite persistent structural and macroeconomic challenges.
According to the apex bank, overall business confidence stood at 3.9 index points during the review period.
The report comes as the CBN continues its tight monetary policy stance aimed at curbing inflation and stabilising the foreign exchange market, while businesses continue to call for lower financing costs and improved operating conditions.
The naira closed on Thursday at ₦1,371/$1, slightly weaker than ₦1,368.95/$1 recorded the previous day, according to CBN data.
The report noted that businesses expect the naira to appreciate gradually against the dollar over the short- and medium-term outlook periods.
Respondents cited several factors driving optimism, including improved expansionary policy measures, which accounted for 19% of positive sentiment.
Better access to finance and prospects for economic diversification contributed 13% each to overall optimism.
The industrial sector recorded the highest confidence level at 8.8 index points, reflecting stronger sentiment in manufacturing and production activities.
Businesses in the North-East region expressed the strongest optimism among all regions surveyed.
The CBN added that confidence remains positive over the one-month, three-month, and six-month outlooks, suggesting expectations of gradual macroeconomic improvement.
However, the report also highlighted persistent constraints affecting business operations across the country.
Insecurity ranked as the most significant challenge, scoring 74.1 points.
High and multiple taxation followed with 70.5 points, while high interest rates came in at 67.4 points, reflecting concerns over borrowing costs.
Other constraints included high bank charges at 62.8 points and competition at 61.8 points, alongside broader issues such as weak infrastructure and financial limitations.
The survey further noted that energy challenges, governance issues, and geopolitical risks continue to weigh on sentiment.
Despite these hurdles, the report suggests early signs of macroeconomic stabilisation, particularly in the foreign exchange market, following ongoing reforms by the Federal Government and the CBN.
The apex bank is scheduled to hold its 305th Monetary Policy Committee meeting next week, with investors closely watching for possible policy direction.
At its last meeting, the CBN cut the Monetary Policy Rate by 50 basis points to 26.5 per cent from 27 per cent.
