The World Bank has raised its economic growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa to 4.3 per cent in 2026, citing stronger domestic demand, agricultural recovery and improved performance across several commodity-producing economies.
The revised forecast represents an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the Bank’s April 2026 projection and compares with estimated regional growth of 4.1 per cent in 2025.
The outlook was contained in the October 2026 Africa Economic Update and highlighted in an economic assessment by Coronation Asset Management.
According to the report, growth forecasts were upgraded for 35 of the 47 countries covered, including Nigeria, Angola, Ethiopia and Zambia.
However, the World Bank warned that the recovery remains vulnerable to higher energy prices, inflationary pressures and persistent structural challenges.
Africa Shows Resilience Amid Global Uncertainty
The revised forecast suggests that many African economies have maintained economic momentum despite disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict.
Higher commodity prices and stronger extractive activities have supported some resource-producing countries.
Other economies have benefited from agricultural recovery, domestic consumption and macroeconomic reforms.
The report noted that the economic effects of the Middle East conflict have been transmitted largely through higher fuel, fertiliser and food costs.
These pressures have increased operating expenses for businesses and living costs for households.
Inflation Expected to Rise
Despite stronger economic growth, inflation remains a major concern.
The World Bank projects median inflation across Sub-Saharan Africa to rise to 5.5 per cent in 2026 from 3.7 per cent in 2025.
The increase reflects the impact of higher energy, food and fertiliser prices.
Rising fuel costs can affect transportation, electricity generation and industrial production.
Similarly, higher fertiliser prices may increase agricultural production costs and place additional pressure on food prices.
For low-income households, these developments can reduce purchasing power and limit the benefits of economic expansion.
Poverty Reduction Remains Slow
One of the major concerns raised in the report is that stronger economic growth may not produce a corresponding improvement in living standards.
Per capita income growth is projected to increase from 1.6 per cent in 2025 to 1.8 per cent in 2026.
It is expected to average approximately 2.0 per cent between 2027 and 2028.
However, the poverty rate measured at the $3-per-day threshold is projected to decline only marginally.
The report estimates that the rate will fall from 47.8 per cent in 2026 to 47.1 per cent in 2027.
This suggests that a substantial proportion of the population could remain in poverty despite improving economic output.
East African Community Leads Growth
The East African Community is projected to remain the fastest-growing regional bloc, with economic expansion estimated at 6.2 per cent in 2026.
Strong domestic demand and investment in Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda are expected to support the performance.
Growth in Eastern and Southern Africa is projected to strengthen to 4.1 per cent in 2026 from 3.7 per cent in 2025.
The region is expected to average 4.2 per cent growth between 2027 and 2028.
Western and Central Africa is projected to grow by 4.5 per cent in 2026, before accelerating to an average of 4.7 per cent over the following two years.
Nigeria, Angola Record Improved Outlook
Among selected African economies, Angola is projected to grow by 4.5 per cent in 2026, compared with 3.1 per cent in 2025.
Nigeria’s growth forecast stands at 4.3 per cent, compared with 4.0 per cent in the report’s country comparison table for 2025.
Ethiopia is projected to maintain growth of 9.2 per cent.
Kenya’s economic growth is forecast at 4.6 per cent.
Meanwhile, South Africa is projected to expand by only 1.0 per cent, compared with 1.1 per cent in 2025.
The figures demonstrate considerable differences in economic performance across the continent.
Commodity Demand Creates Opportunities
The report also highlighted growing global investment in artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure and the energy transition.
These developments are supporting demand for critical minerals found in parts of Africa.
Countries with commercially viable mineral resources could benefit from stronger demand.
However, the economic gains will depend on investment, infrastructure and the ability to develop processing capacity.
Exporting raw materials alone may limit the value retained within producing countries.
Structural Challenges Remain
The World Bank’s outlook indicates that Africa’s long-term economic performance will increasingly depend on domestic productivity and investment rather than commodity prices alone.
Infrastructure gaps, financing constraints and low productivity remain major obstacles.
The report also identified global financial tightening, climate-related disruptions and geopolitical tensions as downside risks.
A strong El Niño event could affect agricultural output and food prices.
Further disruption to the Strait of Hormuz could increase shipping and energy costs.
Growth Must Deliver Better Living Standards
Although the revised forecast is encouraging, the report highlights the need for economic expansion that produces tangible benefits.
Stronger investment in agriculture, infrastructure, education and productive industries could help improve incomes.
Policies that support businesses and employment may also strengthen the link between economic growth and poverty reduction.
Ultimately, Africa’s economic outlook will depend not only on the pace of expansion but also on how effectively countries convert growth into improved living standards.
