The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has reported a 3.8 per cent year-on-year increase in global passenger demand for January 2026, despite the impact of the Lunar New Year calendar shift.
According to IATA, total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), rose 3.8 per cent compared to January 2025. Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASK), increased 3.5 per cent year-on-year.
The global load factor reached 82.0 per cent, up 0.2 percentage points from January 2025, marking a record high for the month.
International demand climbed 5.9 per cent year-on-year. Capacity rose 5.8 per cent, while the load factor stood at 82.5 per cent, also a January record.
Domestic demand edged up by just 0.1 per cent, as capacity fell 0.4 per cent year-on-year. However, the domestic load factor improved to 81.2 per cent, up 0.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year.
IATA noted that January’s performance was skewed by the shift of the Lunar New Year from January in 2025 to February in 2026. The holiday typically drives a surge in travel demand, making year-on-year comparisons appear weaker.
Commenting on the figures, IATA Director-General, Willie Walsh, said the fundamentals remain strong.
“The timing of the Lunar New Year partly explains the slightly slower 3.8 per cent expansion in January, but the fundamentals are in place for demand to continue strong growth in 2026,” Walsh said.
He added that schedule data indicates a 5.2 per cent increase in global seat capacity by March, which would mark the fastest expansion since April 2024.
Walsh, however, cautioned that recent geopolitical events have introduced uncertainty around traffic flows and fuel costs. He stressed the need for states to respect their obligation to keep civilians and civil aviation free from harm.
He also projected that average air fares are expected to fall in real terms over 2026, continuing the long-term trend of more affordable travel, despite rising infrastructure charges, regulatory burdens and energy transition costs.
All regions recorded year-on-year growth in international RPK, although Asia-Pacific growth slowed due to the holiday shift.
Asia-Pacific: Demand rose 4.4 per cent, capacity increased 5.2 per cent, and load factor stood at 85.9 per cent.
Europe: Demand grew 6.3 per cent, capacity rose 5.7 per cent, with load factor at 79.4 per cent.
North America: Demand increased 3.4 per cent, capacity climbed 2.6 per cent, and load factor reached 82.3 per cent.
Middle East: Demand rose 7.2 per cent, capacity increased 7.8 per cent, and load factor stood at 83.2 per cent.
Latin America: Demand surged 11.4 per cent, capacity rose 8.9 per cent, with load factor at 86.5 per cent.
Africa: Demand climbed 11.7 per cent, capacity increased 10.1 per cent, and load factor reached 77.4 per cent.
Domestic traffic was largely affected by the Lunar New Year shift. While China, Australia and the United States saw declines, Brazil recorded a strong 10.9 per cent year-on-year increase in domestic traffic.
Meanwhile, IATA also reported a solid start to 2026 for global air cargo markets.
Total cargo demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK), rose 5.6 per cent year-on-year in January. International cargo operations recorded stronger growth of 7.2 per cent.
Capacity increased 3.6 per cent year-on-year, with international capacity up 5.7 per cent.
Walsh described the cargo performance as robust but noted growing regional divergence.
Carriers in Africa, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific and Europe recorded faster-than-average growth. In contrast, airlines in the Americas reported aggregate contractions.
IATA said several operating factors influenced performance. Global goods trade expanded 4.9 per cent year-on-year in December 2025, while jet fuel prices fell 6.5 per cent in January, easing cost pressures.
The global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 51.8 in January, surpassing the 50-point expansion threshold and reaching its highest level in over 18 months. The PMI for new export orders climbed to 49.9, indicating mixed but cautiously optimistic industrial growth.
Regionally, African airlines recorded the strongest cargo performance, with demand surging 18.2 per cent year-on-year. Middle Eastern carriers followed with 9.3 per cent growth, while Asia-Pacific airlines posted a 7.8 per cent increase.
Despite geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties, IATA said the January data underscores a broadly resilient global aviation market, with fundamentals supportive of continued passenger and cargo demand growth in 2026.
