Global goods trade expanded in the first quarter of 2025, as importers rushed to stockpile goods ahead of anticipated tariff hikes, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said in its latest report.
The WTO’s Goods Trade Barometer rose to 103.5 in Q1, up from 102.8 in March, indicating that merchandise trade volumes remained above recent trends.
“While the barometer suggests strong trade activity in early 2025, this is largely due to frontloading by businesses that are worried about rising tariffs,” the WTO said in a statement.
The Goods Trade Barometer is a real-time gauge of global trade conditions, tracking major goods such as vehicles, electronics, and raw materials. Any reading above 100 reflects stronger-than-trend growth, while below 100 signals a slowdown.
The surge in trade activity was driven by increased shipping and air freight, with businesses accelerating imports in anticipation of policy shifts and rising trade barriers.
However, the WTO cautioned that the growth momentum may not be sustained, noting a decline in forward-looking indicators like new export orders, which could indicate softening global demand and growing policy uncertainty.
“The decline in new export orders reflects concerns about future demand,” the WTO added, warning of potential trade headwinds in the coming months.
Analysts say that unless trade policy tensions ease, the current upswing could quickly give way to slower growth or even contraction, particularly if tariffs start taking effect and consumer demand weakens globally.
