Nigeria’s modular refineries supplied an average of 2.37 per cent of the country’s diesel demand between November 2025 and January 2026, according to data compiled from monthly fact sheets released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
The data showed that only three modular refineries — Waltersmith, Edo Refinery and Aradel — were operational during the period. OPAC and Duport refineries remained shut down throughout the three months.
Combined average daily Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) supply from the three active plants stood at about 393,000 litres per day. Monthly outputs declined from 489,000 litres per day in November 2025 to 392,000 litres per day in December and 297,000 litres per day in January 2026.
In contrast, national diesel consumption averaged about 17 million litres per day based on truck-out volumes into the domestic market. Consumption rose from 15.4 million litres per day in November to 16.4 million litres per day in December, before climbing to 19.2 million litres per day in January.
As a result, modular refineries met roughly 3.18 per cent of demand in November, 2.39 per cent in December and 1.55 per cent in January, resulting in a three-month average of 2.37 per cent.
Capacity utilisation across the operational facilities ranged from low to moderate levels. Waltersmith recorded utilisation rates between 61 and 63 per cent, while Edo Refinery reached as high as 91.40 per cent in November before declining in subsequent months.
Aradel’s utilisation dropped sharply to 29.09 per cent in January, although it frequently led output volumes in November and December.
Average utilisation across the three operational refineries stood at about 51.33 per cent, suggesting room for higher output if operational challenges are addressed.
Notably, none of the modular refineries currently produces Premium Motor Spirit (petrol).
Larger facilities, particularly the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, supplied significantly higher diesel volumes during the period. The refinery delivered 5.6 million litres per day in November, 5.8 million litres per day in December and 10.9 million litres per day in January 2026.
Diesel imports also remained substantial, averaging 14.1 million litres per day in November, 10.8 million litres per day in December and 8.1 million litres per day in January.
The figures highlight Nigeria’s continued dependence on imports, even for diesel — the primary product produced by modular refineries.
The NMDPRA fact sheet also set 2026 daily consumption benchmarks at 50 million litres for petrol, 14 million litres for diesel, 3 million litres for aviation fuel and 3.9 million metric tonnes for cooking gas.
However, actual January 2026 consumption exceeded benchmarks across all categories. Petrol truck-out averaged 60.2 million litres per day, 20.4 per cent above the benchmark. Diesel reached 19.2 million litres per day, 37.1 per cent higher than the 14 million-litre target.
Aviation fuel consumption stood at 3.5 million litres per day, while cooking gas demand rose to 4.86 million metric tonnes per day, surpassing benchmarks by 16.7 per cent and 24.6 per cent respectively.
The Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) has repeatedly urged the government to ensure adequate crude supply and funding for local refiners.
CORAN’s Publicity Secretary, Eche Idoko, listed operational and upcoming facilities, including Aradel, Waltersmith, OPAC, Clairgold and Azikel refineries.
He argued that while large operators can secure crude through private arrangements, smaller modular refiners face feedstock constraints. He called for strict enforcement of the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation to ensure fair access.
Idoko also advocated the creation of a Midstream Refinery Development Fund to finance critical equipment such as catalytic reformers and desulphurisation units needed for petrol production and cleaner fuels.
“Monopoly threats arise only if the government withholds crude oil from smaller refiners and denies them funding for critical equipment,” he said.
The January 2026 data underscore the incremental but limited progress in scaling modular refining operations, as Nigeria continues its push toward greater domestic refining capacity and reduced import dependence.
