According to data released by the Nigerian Upstream Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria’s average crude oil production, including condensates, experienced a notable decline of 6.33% to 1.54 million barrels per day (mb/d) in February. This decrease follows January’s production level of 1.64 mb/d.
The decline in crude oil production was observed across major production terminals, with significant drops reported in Bonny (-25.24% month-on-month), Brass (-16.05% m/m), Qua Iboe (-13.66% m/m), Forcados (-13.21% m/m), and Escravos (-12.04% m/m).
The Nigerian government has been intensifying efforts to combat oil theft and pipeline vandalism, which have been longstanding challenges in the country’s oil industry. However, despite these efforts, frequent leaks from pipelines due to poor maintenance continue to pose a downside risk to crude oil production in the near term.
As a result of these factors, industry analysts maintain a cautious outlook, maintaining an average crude oil production estimate (including condensate) of 1.59 mb/d for 2024. This estimate contrasts with the Federal Government of Nigeria’s (FGN) projection of 1.78 mb/d for the same period.
