Nigeria’s Current Account Balance Seen Rising to $18.81bn in 2026 — CBN

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that Nigeria’s current account balance will rise to $18.81 billion in 2026, up from $16.94 billion recorded in 2025.According to the CBN’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria, the projected surplus represents 11.16 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), compared with 10.94 per cent in 2025.The apex bank noted that increased portfolio investment inflows and external borrowings are expected to keep the financial account in a net borrowing position of $10.15 billion in 2026.The International Investment Position (IIP) is also projected to record a net borrowing position of $69.58 billion, as relatively attractive domestic yields are expected to further boost capital inflows.CBN said ongoing reforms in the foreign exchange market are expected to sustain exchange rate stability, while external reserves are projected to rise to $51.04 billion in 2026.The outlook is framed against a mixed global economic environment. Global growth is estimated at 3.20 per cent in 2025, slightly below the 3.30 per cent recorded in 2024, reflecting lingering trade tensions and weaker demand in major economies.However, global inflation moderated to 4.20 per cent, supported by lower energy prices and continued normalisation of supply chains.On the domestic front, inflationary pressures eased over most of 2025 following the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by the National Bureau of Statistics. Headline inflation declined from 24.48 per cent in January 2025 to an estimated annual average of 21.26 per cent, reflecting the lagged effects of tight monetary policy, improved fiscal-monetary coordination, exchange rate stability, and base effects.The CBN projected that headline inflation would further moderate to an average of 12.94 per cent in 2026, driven largely by declining food prices and lower premium motor spirit (PMS) costs.Despite the positive outlook, the apex bank cautioned that the economy remains exposed to several risks. It warned that inflation could rise again if fiscal expenditure exceeds benchmarks or if adverse global financial conditions trigger capital reversals and exchange rate volatility.The bank also noted that growth prospects could be negatively affected if a reversal of disinflation forces further monetary tightening. In addition, unfavourable climatic conditions and potential disruptions to crude oil production could dampen output growth, impair budget implementation, and weaken overall macroeconomic performance.The CBN further highlighted that geopolitical tensions and renewed protectionist trade policies could adversely affect Nigeria’s trade balance and exchange rate stability.On the non-oil sector, exports of agricultural commodities and fertilisers are projected to continue growing, supported by government initiatives aimed at strengthening the export value chain.According to the bank, the recently launched National Export Trading Company and National Intellectual Property Policy are expected to further boost non-oil export receipts.Despite the stronger export outlook, total imports are projected to rise to $43.27 billion in 2026 from $39.92 billion in 2025, reflecting higher demand for capital goods as economic activity expands.The services account deficit is expected to widen to $13.68 billion in 2026 from $12.80 billion in 2025, driven by increased payments for business and transport services, higher demand for research and development, and rising freight costs linked to higher non-oil imports.The primary income account is projected to remain in deficit at $8.62 billion, due to higher investment income payments to non-resident investors as foreign portfolio inflows increase interest and dividend outflows.Meanwhile, the secondary income account is projected to record a surplus of $26.13 billion in 2026, up from $23.82 billion in 2025, supported by stronger diaspora remittances and higher transfers. Some of these inflows are also expected to support election-related activities during the period.