The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, has projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 4.68 per cent in 2026, as the Federal Government intensifies efforts to drive investment-led and inclusive growth aimed at job creation and improved living standards.
Edun made the projection on Thursday in Lagos while delivering the keynote address at the launch of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) Macroeconomic Outlook Report for 2026.
According to him, the growth forecast aligns with the government’s medium-term objective of achieving seven per cent annual growth and building a one-trillion-dollar economy by 2030.
“The economy in 2026 is projected to grow at 4.68 per cent, consistent with our path to seven per cent growth per annum and a one-trillion-dollar economy by 2030,” Edun said.
The minister also projected average inflation at 16.5 per cent and an exchange rate of about ₦1,400 to the dollar in 2026.
“For inflation, as we have said, we need to get into simple figures. It is expected to average 16.5 per cent, and the exchange rate, ₦1,400 per dollar,” he added.
Edun said the 2026 budget, titled “Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity,” reflects President Bola Tinubu’s commitment to ensuring that macroeconomic progress translates into tangible improvements in the daily lives of Nigerians.
“It is not about the metrics or the percentages; it is about the lived experience of Nigerians in terms of electricity supply, food availability and improved welfare,” he said.
He explained that the projected budget deficit of about four per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) mirrors the scale of Nigeria’s development needs and the administration’s ambition to accelerate growth.
According to the minister, following the removal of structural distortions and recent stabilisation measures, economic policy is now focused on driving growth through increased investment.
“Ongoing investments in digital infrastructure, including the rollout of over 90,000 kilometres of fibre optic cables in collaboration with the World Bank and the Ministry of Communications, are part of efforts to empower young Nigerians and support technology-driven growth,” Edun said.
He noted that the government’s reform agenda is anchored on four key objectives: consolidating macroeconomic stability, improving the business and investment climate, strengthening human capital while protecting vulnerable groups through social protection, and stimulating broad-based economic growth.
On fiscal performance, Edun said that despite revenue shortfalls in the oil and gas sector, the Federal Government prioritised fiscal federalism, transparency and accountability in managing the federation account.
“This ensured that funds due to states and sub-national governments were fully disbursed, significantly strengthening their financial positions,” he said.
He added that several states recorded budget surpluses of about three per cent, allowing for increased spending on health, education, public services and other socio-economic priorities.
Edun also highlighted the Federal Government’s fiscal discipline, noting that the extension of the 2024 budget helped ensure the completion of priority capital projects.
“Aggregate capital expenditure in 2024 stood at about ₦11.1 trillion, representing an 85 per cent performance, reflecting the administration’s emphasis on completing ongoing projects,” he said.
He concluded that all statutory obligations, including foreign and domestic debt servicing and salary payments, were fully met.
“These outcomes underscore a strong commitment to transparency, structural reform and fiscal discipline, as well as laying the foundation for rapid, sustained and inclusive growth,” Edun added.
