The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has announced that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate declined to 15.15 per cent in December 2025, reflecting a moderation in price pressures toward the end of the year.
According to the NBS monthly report, the December 2025 headline inflation figure is higher than the 14.45 per cent recorded in November. However, following adjustments to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) methodology, the inflation rate was recalculated at 17.33 per cent.
The statistics agency explained that the December 2025 year-on-year headline inflation rate, including all other sub-indexes, was derived using a maximised index reference period. This involved adopting a 12-month index reference period in which the average CPI for the 12 months of 2024 was equated to 100.
The NBS said this approach marked a departure from the single-month index reference period, where December 2024 alone would have been set to 100. According to the bureau, using a single-month base would have resulted in an artificial spike in the December 2025 year-on-year inflation rate.
“This artificial spike is induced by the base effect, which is methodological, not structural, resulting in a rate that is not in tandem with current inflationary realities,” the NBS said.
The agency noted that adopting the 12-month index reference period was necessary to provide a more accurate reflection of inflation trends and avoid distortions caused by base effects.
The adjustment underscores the NBS’s effort to ensure that inflation data better captures underlying price movements and offers policymakers and market participants a clearer picture of Nigeria’s inflation dynamics.
