Oil prices rose on Monday as investors weighed the outcome of ongoing talks between the U.S. and Ukrainian presidents on a potential deal to end the war in Ukraine, alongside escalating Middle East tensions that could disrupt global supply.
At 0443 GMT, Brent crude futures climbed 63 cents, or 1.04%, to $61.27 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 58 cents, or 1.02%, to $57.32. The gains followed a drop of more than 2% on Friday, when investors weighed a looming global supply glut and the prospect of a Ukraine peace agreement.
U.S.-Ukraine peace talks in focus
The market reacted to remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump, who said he and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy were “getting a lot closer, maybe very close” to reaching an agreement to end the war. However, Trump acknowledged that the fate of the disputed Donbas region remains a key unresolved issue.
The two leaders spoke at a joint press conference after meeting at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida on Sunday, with Trump adding that it will be clear “in a few weeks” whether negotiations to end the war will succeed.
Supply risks and market dynamics
In addition to the Ukraine peace talks, investors remain alert to potential supply disruptions in the Middle East, a region critical to global oil markets. Analysts note that even modest geopolitical tensions in oil-producing countries can cause price swings due to the sensitive balance between supply and demand.
From a business and energy desk perspective, these developments indicate that oil markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical and diplomatic events, particularly those that could impact global production or trade flows. Traders and investors are likely to monitor negotiations closely, as any breakthrough or setback could influence both short-term price movements and longer-term market sentiment.
Outlook for oil markets
As the market digests both the prospect of a Ukraine peace deal and ongoing Middle East uncertainties, energy analysts forecast continued volatility in oil prices. Strategic investors may also track OPEC+ production decisions, U.S. inventories, and global demand trends for additional insights into market direction heading into 2026.
