The World Bank Group has clarified its stance on fuel imports in Nigeria following criticism over recommendations contained in its latest Nigeria Development Update.
The clarification comes after backlash from policy commentators and social media activists who questioned the implications of the report for Nigeria’s domestic refining ambitions.
In a statement, the World Bank said its April 2026 Nigeria Development Update, released on April 7, included a recommendation to allow imports of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol), but stressed that the proposal should be understood within a wider policy framework.
According to the global lender, the recommendation was made in the context of ongoing disruptions in global energy supply chains and broader discussions around market reforms.
“The World Bank Group released its April 2026 edition of the Nigeria Development Update on April 7. Included in the report is a recommendation to allow imports of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol). Given current global energy supply disruptions, such a recommendation may run counter to efforts that countries around the world are undertaking to ensure their energy and national security,” the statement said.
The issue gained traction online after social media activist Dan Bello criticised the recommendation and questioned its potential impact on Nigeria’s efforts to expand domestic refining capacity.
Debate intensified further after the webpage hosting the Nigeria Development Update was reportedly taken down shortly after the report sparked public discussion, raising questions about the intent and interpretation of the recommendations.
Responding to the controversy, the World Bank emphasised that its guidance should not be interpreted as a blanket endorsement of fuel importation. Instead, it said the proposal forms part of a broader reform strategy aimed at creating a competitive petroleum market while protecting consumers.
“In the case of Nigeria, the focus should be to provide targeted support to the most vulnerable people through their well-functioning social safety net system, and the World Bank Group stands ready to step up its existing support,” the bank stated.
It added that any move toward liberalising fuel imports must be carefully managed to avoid undermining national energy security, especially at a time when global supply chains remain fragile due to geopolitical tensions.
The institution also reiterated that reforms in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector should be implemented gradually.
“Over time, transitioning toward a competitive retail market for Premium Motor Spirit is an important policy direction that requires a well-sequenced implementation strategy that guarantees the quality and standards of all petroleum products,” the statement added.
The bank acknowledged ongoing efforts by the Nigerian government and private sector investors to stabilise fuel supply following major reforms and new investments in domestic refining capacity.
“The World Bank Group recognises the efforts of the Government of Nigeria and the Nigerian private sector in taking concrete steps to safeguard fuel supply — a foundation that is essential to protect consumers and businesses,” it noted.
The clarification comes at a sensitive time for Nigeria’s energy sector as policymakers weigh the balance between fuel imports and expanding domestic refining capacity, including production from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
In its earlier report, the World Bank noted that imported petrol is currently about 12 per cent cheaper than fuel supplied by the Dangote refinery, reflecting distortions in domestic pricing structures amid rising global crude prices.
According to the report, the refinery — now the main supplier of refined petrol after the regulator stopped issuing import licences in early 2026 — raised its ex-depot price of petrol to about N1,275 per litre as of March 23, 2026. This compares with an estimated import-parity price of around N1,122 per litre, creating a cost difference of roughly 12 per cent.
The World Bank also warned that rising global oil prices could further intensify inflationary pressures in Nigeria. It estimated that an increase in crude prices to around $80 per barrel — about 31.1 per cent higher than pre-conflict levels — could significantly affect the economy.
“Overall, an increase in oil prices to about $80 per barrel would directly add around 3.1 percentage points to headline inflation under a full pass-through assumption,” the bank stated.
It added that the indirect effects of higher fuel prices on transportation, logistics, and food costs could push inflation even higher.
