The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has issued a strong call for urgent and sustained global investment in the upstream oil sector, warning that without it, the world could face a severe energy crisis in the coming decades.
In its newly released 2025 World Oil Outlook, OPEC estimates that a cumulative $14.9 trillion in upstream investment—equivalent to $574 billion annually—will be required between 2025 and 2050 to meet projected oil demand.
This accounts for the majority of a total $18.2 trillion oil-related investment forecast for the 25-year period, which also includes midstream and downstream spending.
Rejecting the narrative of an imminent peak in fossil fuel demand, OPEC described such projections as a “fantasy,” instead forecasting that oil demand will continue to rise—from 103.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024 to 116.5 mb/d by 2045, eventually peaking at around 123 mb/d by 2050. This represents an 18.6% increase over the 26-year period.
The report emphasises the need for continued capital injection across all segments of the oil sector—including exploration, production, transport, and refining—to ensure energy security, market stability, and affordability.
OPEC also stressed the role of oil in supporting economic growth and industrialisation, particularly in developing countries, where demand is expected to grow most rapidly.
Analysts note that while energy transition efforts are accelerating, fossil fuels will remain integral to the global energy mix for decades, necessitating parallel investment in oil, gas, and renewables to avoid supply disruptions.
