The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has projected that Nigeria’s economy could expand by up to 4.5 per cent in 2026, driven by sustained macroeconomic reforms, moderating inflation, exchange-rate stability, and improved performance in the non-oil sector.
The projection is contained in CPPE’s Review of the Nigerian Economy in 2025 and Outlook for 2026, released by the centre’s Chief Executive Officer, Dr. Muda Yusuf, on Wednesday.
From stabilization to growth
According to CPPE, Nigeria is well-positioned to transition from a period of macroeconomic stabilization to a more robust growth phase, provided that the current reform momentum continues and key economic risks are effectively managed. The centre described 2025 as a “turning point” in the country’s macroeconomic trajectory, following the turbulence that accompanied the early stages of economic reforms.
One of the most notable achievements highlighted by the report was the relative stability of the naira, which largely traded within the N1,440–N1,500 per US dollar range throughout 2025. The report noted that periodic marginal appreciation of the local currency during the year helped strengthen business confidence, ease imported inflation pressures, and restore predictability in pricing, contracting, and investment planning.
“This stability played a critical role in dampening inflationary pressures across the economy and provided a more predictable environment for business operations,” the report stated.
Key drivers of growth
The CPPE outlook emphasizes several factors likely to support Nigeria’s growth trajectory in 2026:
- Macroeconomic reforms aimed at improving fiscal discipline and governance
- Exchange-rate stability, which supports trade and investment confidence
- Moderating inflation, allowing households and businesses to plan and invest
- Stronger performance in the non-oil sector, reflecting diversification efforts and private sector participation
Dr. Yusuf stressed that if the reform momentum is sustained and risks such as global commodity price volatility, fiscal pressures, and policy uncertainty are managed effectively, Nigeria could achieve a smoother transition from stabilization to accelerated growth in the coming year.
Outlook for investors
From a business desk perspective, CPPE’s projection signals a cautiously optimistic investment climate, especially for sectors outside oil, including manufacturing, agriculture, and technology. Analysts note that continued policy consistency, infrastructure improvements, and stable currency trends will be key in translating these projections into tangible economic gains.
