Nigeria has failed to meet its 1.5 million barrels per day crude oil production quota approved by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in January 2026, extending its streak of underperformance to six consecutive months.
According to OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report, Nigeria produced about 1.46 million barrels per day (mbpd) in January 2026. Output increased from 1.422mbpd in December 2025 to 1.459mbpd in January, reflecting a marginal rise of approximately 38,000 barrels per day.
Despite the improvement, production remained below the 1.5mbpd quota, marking the sixth straight month—spanning August 2025 to January 2026—that the country has fallen short of its OPEC allocation.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission showed that crude production declined in December 2025 from 1.436mbpd in November to 1.422mbpd, despite government efforts to ramp up output.
In 2025, Nigeria underperformed its OPEC quota in nine months, meeting or slightly exceeding the target only in January, June and July. Year-on-year, crude production dropped by over 80,000 barrels per day.
The country began 2025 on a strong note, producing 1.54mbpd in January—about 38,700 barrels per day above its OPEC allocation. However, output slipped below the quota in February at 1.47mbpd and fell further in March to 1.40mbpd, marking one of the widest shortfalls of the year.
Although production recovered slightly in April at 1.49mbpd and May at 1.45mbpd, Nigeria remained below its OPEC ceiling until June, when output edged up to 1.51mbpd. The country sustained this level in July before slipping below the threshold again in subsequent months.
As 2026 progresses, expectations are high that Nigeria will boost crude output, especially following the announcement by the Dangote Refinery that it has reached its full refining capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.
Meanwhile, the Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, has pledged to increase oil production.
In a statement issued by the commission’s Head of Media and Strategic Communication, Eniola Akinkuotu, Eyesan said her vision for the upstream sector rests on three pillars: production optimisation and revenue expansion; regulatory predictability and speed; and safe, governed and sustainable operations.
She said the agenda aligns with President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, which aims to raise Nigeria’s crude oil production to 2mbpd by 2027 and 3mbpd by 2030.
According to Eyesan, the commission will focus on recovering shut-in volumes with economic value, curbing natural field decline, reducing losses and accelerating time-to-first oil, while avoiding additional regulatory burdens or transaction costs on operators.
