Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose to 15.93 per cent in May 2026, marking the third consecutive monthly increase in the annual inflation rate as business leaders blamed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rising energy costs, insecurity, and import-related challenges for the persistent rise in consumer prices.
The latest Consumer Price Index report released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday showed that inflation increased from 15.69 per cent in April to 15.93 per cent in May. The increase extended an upward trend that began in March after inflation eased slightly to 15.06 per cent in February.
According to the report, the Consumer Price Index rose to 140.7 in May from 138.3 in April, reflecting a 2.4-point increase in the general price level.
The NBS stated that headline inflation on a month-on-month basis slowed to 1.75 per cent in May from 2.13 per cent recorded in April.
“In May 2026, the headline inflation rate on a month-on-month basis was 1.75 per cent, which was 0.39 per cent lower than the rate recorded in April 2026. This means that in May 2026, the rate of increase in the average price level was lower than the rate of increase in the average price level in April 2026,” the bureau said.
Despite the moderation in monthly inflation, annual inflation continued its upward trajectory, rising from 15.38 per cent in March to 15.69 per cent in April before reaching 15.93 per cent in May.
The NBS noted that the latest figure was significantly lower than the 26.06 per cent recorded in May 2025, indicating a considerable easing of inflationary pressures compared to a year earlier.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the largest contributors to inflation, accounting for 6.38 percentage points of the annual inflation rate. Restaurants and accommodation services contributed 2.06 percentage points, while transport accounted for 1.70 percentage points.
Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels contributed 1.34 percentage points. Education services accounted for 0.99 percentage points, while health services contributed 0.97 percentage points.
The report showed that average inflation for the 12 months ending May 2026 stood at 18.36 per cent, compared to 30.57 per cent recorded during the corresponding period in 2025.
Food inflation remained elevated at 16.96 per cent year-on-year in May, although lower than the 24.55 per cent recorded in May 2025. On a monthly basis, food inflation eased to 2.98 per cent from 3.63 per cent in April.
The NBS attributed the increase in food prices to higher costs of staple commodities, including onions, maize grains, melon, cassava flour, crayfish, tomatoes, wheat grain, yam tubers, sweet potatoes, ginger, plantain, and cowpea.
“The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending May 2026 was 16.99 per cent, which was 16.22 percentage points lower compared with the average annual rate recorded in May 2025,” the report stated.
Reacting to the inflation figures, the Deputy President of the National Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, Segun Kuti-George, linked the increase largely to the impact of the conflict involving Iran and disruptions in global oil trade.
“Inflation has certainly been on an upward trend extensively because of the war in Iran. Coupled with the closure of the Hormuz Strait by Iran and the blockade by the US, which has negatively impacted 20 per cent of petroleum-produced trade,” he said.
Kuti-George noted that rising fuel and cooking gas prices continued to place pressure on households and manufacturers across the country.
“The impact has been huge. It has affected not only the households but the manufacturers,” he stated.
He added that while petrol prices had fallen slightly in some locations, cooking gas remained beyond the reach of many Nigerians.
Similarly, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr. Muda Yusuf, attributed the latest inflation increase to external shocks stemming from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
In a policy brief on the May inflation report, Yusuf said rising crude oil prices, increased marine insurance costs, shipping disruptions, and higher import expenses had contributed to the inflationary pressure.
“The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise notes the marginal increase of 0.24 per cent in headline inflation from 15.69 per cent in April 2026 to 15.93 per cent in May 2026, reflecting the continuing impact of recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on global energy markets and supply chains,” he said.
Yusuf, however, observed that inflationary pressures were beginning to moderate on a monthly basis.
“Headline inflation moderated on a month-on-month basis from 2.13 per cent in April to 1.75 per cent in May, while food inflation eased from 3.63 per cent to 2.98 per cent. This suggests that although inflationary pressures persist, the pace of price escalation is slowing,” he noted.
The economist identified food, transportation, housing, energy, health, and education as the key drivers of inflation, accounting for approximately 87 per cent of headline inflation.
He also highlighted insecurity as a major structural challenge affecting food production and supply chains.
“Insecurity has displaced farming communities, reduced cultivated acreage, disrupted agricultural supply chains, and increased transportation costs,” Yusuf said.
The President of the Association of Business Owners of Nigeria, Dr. Femi Egbesola, also blamed high fuel costs, insecurity, and import bottlenecks for the increase in inflation.
“The factors behind the marginal increase in inflation are still the cost of fuel, which has not really come down considerably. Energy cost remains high, and I think this is a result of the US-Iran war. Its impact is still lingering,” he said.
Egbesola described insecurity as one of the biggest inflation drivers, noting that many farmers were unable to access their farmlands due to escalating security concerns.
He also criticised inefficiencies associated with the National Single Window platform, arguing that delays in cargo clearance had increased import costs and worsened inflationary pressures.
“The portal did not work as planned and for that reason the cost of importing increased considerably because a number of those containers entered demurrage. Some pay as much as $300 a day for demurrage, and all of these will go directly to the consumers,” he stated.
While welcoming reports of easing tensions between the United States and Iran, Egbesola cautioned that any positive impact on inflation would take time to materialise.
“Before we begin to see the impact of these on inflation and even on the economy, it will not be immediate, maybe in the next four to six months,” he added.
Further analysis of the report showed that core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, stood at 16.82 per cent year-on-year in May. On a monthly basis, core inflation accelerated to 1.94 per cent from 1.03 per cent recorded in April.
Urban inflation was recorded at 16.07 per cent year-on-year, while rural inflation stood at 15.60 per cent.
At the state level, Yobe recorded the highest annual inflation rate at 24.94 per cent, followed by Anambra at 23.29 per cent and Sokoto at 22.60 per cent.
Niger recorded the lowest annual inflation rate at 3.07 per cent, followed by Plateau at 7.10 per cent and Edo at 7.73 per cent.
The latest inflation figures indicate that while consumer prices are rising at a slower pace compared to a year ago, persistent pressures from food costs, energy prices, insecurity, and supply chain challenges continue to weigh on households and businesses across the country.
