Global wheat importers are facing tighter supplies and higher prices as attacks on grain infrastructure in the Black Sea disrupt shipments from Russia and Ukraine, raising concerns over food security in major importing countries.
Benchmark Chicago wheat futures have risen more than 17% since the beginning of July, driven largely by concerns over reduced Black Sea supplies. Physical wheat prices have also increased across alternative exporting countries, including Argentina, Australia and the United States.
Russia and Ukraine have intensified attacks on ports and vessels in recent weeks, disrupting grain terminals and forcing shippers to delay or cancel dozens of cargoes during the peak export season.
A Singapore-based trader who supplies Black Sea wheat to Asian millers said several cargoes that were expected to begin arriving from mid-August had been affected because vessels could not enter ports to load.
The disruptions are prompting buyers to consider replacing Black Sea supplies with wheat from Australia, North America and Argentina.
Most major wheat importers remain exposed to the disruptions because they depend heavily on Russian and Ukrainian wheat for supplies during the second half of the year, when newly harvested crops typically enter global markets.
In Asia, grain processors have booked an estimated 2 million to 2.5 million tonnes of Black Sea wheat for delivery between July and September, representing roughly 30% to 50% of import demand, according to traders.
However, concerns are growing that some of the shipments may not arrive on schedule.
“By the end of August, the market will have to find solutions,” said Maxence Devillers, a grain analyst at Argus Media.
Stronger harvests in parts of the Middle East and North Africa have provided some relief, limiting the immediate impact of the supply disruptions.
Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, has procured record volumes of locally produced wheat, while improved rainfall has strengthened crop prospects in Morocco and Tunisia.
Egypt sourced more than 82% of its wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine during the first half of 2026.
However, traders said the impact of the disruptions was being felt particularly by Egypt’s private sector, which imports more than half of the country’s wheat requirements and generally holds smaller inventories.
Indonesia, the world’s second-largest wheat buyer, has contracted about 600,000 tonnes of wheat from former Soviet grain exporters for shipment between July and September.
An official of the Indonesian Flour Millers Association said current stocks were sufficient to meet immediate food-grade wheat requirements but warned that supplies were not abundant.
The country may need to source cargoes from Bulgaria, Australia, Romania and Argentina if shipments from Russia and Ukraine fail to arrive.
Other major wheat importers, including Algeria, Bangladesh, Jordan, Thailand, Tunisia and Vietnam, also depend heavily on supplies from Russia and Ukraine.
Jordan cancelled two wheat tenders and two barley tenders this month after receiving limited offers, with traders citing elevated prices and shipping risks.
Tunisia has also warned suppliers against invoking force majeure as uncertainty over shipments grows.
The security risks have extended to vessels approaching Black Sea ports.
A vessel scheduled to load grain for Egypt was reportedly attacked while approaching Russia’s port of Novorossiysk last week. Sources identified the vessel as the Xin Hai Tong 66 and said it was empty at the time of the incident, with no injuries reported.
The attacks have made shipowners increasingly reluctant to call at Russian and Ukrainian ports.
Hesham Soliman, a trader in Egypt’s port city of Alexandria, said the situation was worsening and warned of potential shortages if the disruptions continued without a resolution.
The issue has also attracted attention from political leaders, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy saying he discussed threats to food supplies resulting from Black Sea attacks with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.
Replacing Russian and Ukrainian wheat with supplies from alternative origins is likely to significantly increase costs for importers.
Australian Premium White wheat is currently quoted at around $315 to $320 per tonne, including cost and freight to Asia. The cheapest U.S. wheat is priced at about $305 per tonne, while most Black Sea cargoes are available at approximately $260 to $280 per tonne.
The widening price gap highlights the economic pressure facing importers forced to shift away from the Black Sea.
Traders said an arrangement that had largely protected grain vessels and port terminals in Russia and Ukraine from attacks has effectively collapsed in recent weeks, threatening the region’s ability to maintain large agricultural exports.
Ukraine’s Infrastructure Ministry reported 35 attacks on vessels in port, 22 attacks at sea and 67 attacks on port facilities in July alone.
The number of attacks on port facilities was significantly higher than the 14 attacks recorded across all of 2025, underscoring the growing security risks facing the region’s grain trade.
With the peak export season underway, continued disruption in the Black Sea could further tighten global wheat supplies, raise import costs and increase food security pressures in countries that rely heavily on Russian and Ukrainian grain.
