President Bola Tinubu has set an ambitious target of increasing manufacturing’s contribution to Nigeria’s gross domestic product to between 20 and 25 per cent by 2030, a goal that would require a dramatic expansion of industrial output from current levels.
Tinubu made the commitment through the Minister of State for Industry, Trade and Investment, John Owan Enoh, at the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria’s 54th Annual General Meeting in Lagos.
The target comes against a challenging backdrop.
Manufacturing’s contribution to real GDP declined from 9.57 per cent in the first quarter of 2026 to 7.72 per cent in the second quarter, despite manufacturing output growing by 3.29 per cent and 3.24 per cent respectively.
Government Targets More Than Double Current Share
Moving from 7.72 per cent to at least 20 per cent of GDP within four years would require substantial industrial expansion.
The President acknowledged that the target cannot be achieved through policy declarations alone.
“It will be reached by power in your plants, by credit in your accounts, by raw materials at your gates and markets for your goods,” Tinubu said through the minister.
The statement identifies four of the central constraints confronting Nigerian manufacturers: electricity, finance, inputs and demand.
Power Remains Central Constraint
Manufacturing requires dependable energy.
When electricity from the grid is inadequate, factories must generate power independently, adding to production costs.
Higher energy expenditure can then feed into consumer prices or reduce manufacturers’ ability to compete with imported products.
Improving electricity availability is therefore fundamental to any attempt to more than double manufacturing’s share of the economy.
Government Plans Industrial Financing
Tinubu said the government’s industrial policy envisages directing up to five per cent of GDP towards industrial financing, with implementation structured around seven strategic thrusts.
Access to finance is another longstanding concern for manufacturers.
Industrial projects frequently require substantial upfront capital for machinery, factories and working capital.
When borrowing costs are high, companies may delay expansion or avoid investment entirely.
Longer-term and more affordable financing could therefore become an important part of achieving the government’s target.
Raw Materials and Markets Also Matter
Industrial growth also depends on reliable access to inputs.
Manufacturers relying heavily on imported raw materials can be exposed to foreign-exchange volatility and international supply disruptions.
Developing domestic supply chains could reduce some of those vulnerabilities.
At the same time, companies need markets capable of absorbing additional production.
That means industrial policy must connect manufacturing with consumer purchasing power, exports and regional trade opportunities.
2030 Target Will Be Difficult
The government’s ambition is significant, but the starting point illustrates the scale of the task.
A manufacturing contribution of 7.72 per cent would need to rise dramatically to reach even the lower end of the 20–25 per cent target.
That cannot be achieved simply through growth within existing factories.
It would likely require substantial new investment, expansion of industrial capacity and improvements in the wider business environment.
The 2030 target therefore gives the government a measurable benchmark.
For manufacturers, however, the test will not be the ambition itself.
It will be whether electricity becomes more dependable, financing becomes more accessible and factories can produce competitively enough to sell more goods at home and abroad.
