Nigeria’s monetary authorities opted for stability at the November meeting as the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) voted to retain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.00%, following a 50bps cut in the previous session. According to the Committee, the decision reflects a deliberate effort to safeguard recent progress in reducing inflation while anchoring market expectations.
In a notable shift, the MPC narrowed the asymmetric corridor to +50/-450bps from the previous +250/-250bps, signalling an emerging easing bias even as it prioritises price stability. Other key parameters were left unchanged, including the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 45% for Deposit Money Banks, 16% for Merchant Banks, and 75% for non-TSA public sector deposits. The liquidity ratio also remained at 30%.
Looking ahead, the MPC remains cautiously optimistic that inflation will continue its downward trend, supported by naira stability, improved harvest outcomes, and relatively stable petroleum prices. However, with inflation expected to remain in double digits through 2026, policymakers are expected to tread carefully. Analysts anticipate that when rate cuts resume, they will likely occur gradually, in line with the CBN’s preference for a controlled and measured easing cycle to maintain macroeconomic stability.
In the oil sector, Nigeria recorded a modest rebound in crude production, with output (including condensates) rising by 1.0% month-on-month to 1.60 mb/d in October, up from 1.58 mb/d in September, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). The improvement reflects higher output across major terminals such as Bonny (+25.6%), Forcados (+25.0%), Odudu (+5.3%), Agbami (+4.9%), Escravos (+4.5%) and Brass (+1.3%). These gains offset notable declines at Qua Iboe (–41.7%) and Tulja–Okwuibome (–2.8%). Officials attribute the recovery to stabilised operations following the suspension of industrial action by PENGASSAN in the previous month.
Looking ahead, analysts expect sustained security improvements and rising investment across key upstream assets to keep production above the 2024 full-year average of 1.55 mb/d. However, production is still projected to remain below the Federal Government’s 2025 target of 2.06 mb/d. The industry continues to grapple with operational volatilities, including periodic maintenance, infrastructure upgrades, and intermittent downtime at major terminals—factors that have informed a conservative production forecast of 1.68 mb/d for 2025.
