The cost of preparing the pantry basket declined by 3.5 per cent to N22,276.81, but affordability remained in the critical category as higher prices of selected vegetables and flavourings offset some of the relief.
The Cordros Pantry Index (CPI), formerly known as the Cordros Jollof Index, declined significantly in October 2026 as lower prices of rice, chicken, seasonings and other essential items eased the cost of preparing the pantry basket.
The index fell to 61.38 points in October from 70.40 points in September, representing a decline of 9.02 points month-on-month, as price reductions across major basket components outweighed increases recorded in selected vegetables, flavourings and other food items.
Consequently, the cost of preparing the pantry dish dropped by 3.5 per cent to N22,276.81 in October, compared with N23,077.76 recorded in the preceding month.
Despite the improvement, Cordros Capital noted that food affordability remained within the “Critical” category, indicating that the reduction in preparation costs was not sufficient to significantly ease the pressure on household food budgets.
The October performance reflects the impact of improved seasonal supply conditions, particularly following the main agricultural harvest, alongside relative stability in the exchange rate and lower prices of some key food and energy products.
According to the report, movements in the Cordros Pantry Index have broadly followed the direction of food inflation reported by the National Bureau of Statistics, reinforcing the influence of changing food prices on household consumption costs.
Rice, chicken drive October price decline
A breakdown of the basket’s components shows that lower prices of grains, protein products and energy were the principal drivers of the October decline. These categories collectively account for approximately 77 per cent of the basket’s total weight, giving their price movements a significant influence on the overall index.
Rice prices declined by 8.2 per cent month-on-month, while chicken recorded a 7.5 per cent reduction. The two items, which carry relatively high weights in the basket, accounted for a substantial share of the 9.02-point decline in the index.
The report also identified lower prices of selected seasonings and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) as contributing factors to the moderation in the overall basket cost, although cooking gas prices were broadly unchanged during the month.
Improved supply conditions following an above-average main-season harvest supported lower prices for selected agricultural products, including tomatoes, red bell peppers and onions. Relatively stable fertiliser and fuel costs also helped contain agricultural production and transportation expenses during the period.
However, the reduction in the overall basket cost was partly offset by increases in some food items and flavourings.
Tomato paste prices rose by 4.5 per cent, while vegetable oil increased by 7.8 per cent. Scotch bonnet pepper also recorded an 8.8 per cent month-on-month increase, while fresh garlic prices advanced by 3.7 per cent.
Although these increases added pressure to the cost of preparing the dish, their relatively lower weights in the overall basket limited their contribution to the headline index compared with the declines recorded in rice and chicken.
Price movements reveal different supply pressures
The October data highlight how price movements across different food categories can have varying effects on the overall cost of household food consumption.
Cordros’ analysis indicates that the categories recording price declines, particularly grains, protein and energy, have benefited from improved supply conditions, national distribution networks and, in some cases, relative exchange-rate stability.
These factors may have helped moderate the cost of imported food products and production inputs, providing some relief across key components of the basket.
By contrast, the report highlights the vulnerability of selected vegetables and flavourings to domestic agricultural and distribution conditions. Their perishability and geographic concentration in northern Nigeria make their prices more exposed to seasonal changes, supply disruptions and logistical constraints.
This distinction suggests that further price moderation in these food categories will depend largely on improved harvest conditions, efficient transportation and stronger distribution networks.
The report also underscores the importance of the relative contribution of individual food items to the overall basket. While price increases in some vegetables and flavourings raised preparation costs, the sharper reductions in high-weight items such as rice and chicken exerted a greater downward influence on the index.
Food affordability outlook remains challenging
Looking ahead, Cordros expects food prices to begin edging higher as the seasonal boost in supply gradually fades and demand strengthens ahead of the festive period.
The anticipated increase in demand could place renewed pressure on high-weight food items, particularly rice and chicken, alongside selected vegetables that are sensitive to seasonal supply conditions.
The outlook also assumes relative exchange-rate stability and improved security conditions across major food-producing regions, both of which remain important to the availability and distribution of agricultural products.
Cordros expects the current moderation in prices of selected perishable food items to persist until the impact of the main harvest begins to fade towards late November. However, the gradual withdrawal of seasonal supply support could reverse some of the gains recorded in October.
Overall, the October reading demonstrates how improved harvest conditions and lower prices of major food staples can provide temporary relief to household food costs. Nevertheless, the continued classification of affordability as critical shows that the reduction in the cost of preparing the pantry basket has yet to translate into a meaningful improvement in household purchasing power.
The sustainability of the recent decline will therefore depend on the strength of domestic food supply, currency stability, security across agricultural communities and the ability of distribution networks to keep food prices relatively stable as festive demand builds.
