The Federal Government has projected oil revenue of about N60.97 trillion for the 2026 fiscal year, reflecting a more conservative outlook compared to earnings anticipated in the 2025 budget.
The projection is based on analysis of figures contained in the 2026 Appropriation Bill presented by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to a joint session of the National Assembly in Abuja on Friday.
According to the President, the 2026 revenue estimate is anchored on a benchmark crude oil price of $64.85 per barrel, daily oil production of 1.84 million barrels, and an average exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar.
Based on these parameters, Nigeria is expected to produce approximately 671.6 million barrels of crude oil in 2026. At the benchmark price, this translates to estimated gross earnings of $43.55 billion, equivalent to about N60.97 trillion at the projected exchange rate.
In comparison, the 2025 budget was built on more optimistic assumptions, including a higher oil price benchmark of $75 per barrel and a production target of 2.06 million barrels per day, while retaining the same exchange rate assumption of N1,400 to the dollar.
At those levels, projected crude oil production for 2025 stands at about 751.9 million barrels, with estimated oil revenue of $56.39 billion, translating to approximately N78.95 trillion.
A comparison of both fiscal years indicates a projected decline of about N17.98 trillion in oil revenue between 2025 and 2026. The drop is largely attributed to lower crude oil price assumptions and reduced production targets, reflecting the government’s cautious approach amid volatility in the global oil market and domestic production challenges.
The more conservative oil revenue outlook underscores ongoing efforts by the Federal Government to adopt realistic fiscal assumptions while managing economic risks and strengthening budget credibility.
