Global trade activity experienced a surprise rebound in the first quarter of 2025, as businesses accelerated the movement of goods ahead of anticipated tariff hikes, according to the World Trade Organisation (WTO).
The WTO’s latest Goods Trade Barometer, obtained by The PUNCH, revealed that merchandise trade rose above trend, climbing to 103.5 in March from 102.8 in the previous report.
The WTO attributed the growth to a rush by importers to frontload shipments, particularly in automotive products and electronics, due to rising concerns over new protectionist policies.
“Businesses accelerated import orders to beat expected tariff increases,” said WTO Chief Economist Ralph Ossa.
Indicators from air freight (104.3) and container shipping (107.1) showed a sharp increase in the movement of goods along major global routes. Automotive products scored 105.3 on the barometer, while electronic components stood at 102.0, driven by steady demand and improved supply chain performance.
However, the WTO cautioned that this momentum may not be sustained. Its new export orders index—a key forward-looking metric—fell to 97.9, signaling a potential global demand slowdown in the coming months.
The warning comes as policymakers and businesses brace for uncertain trade dynamics, amid rising geopolitical tensions and an evolving tariff environment.
