The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2026, raising it to 4.4 per cent from the 4.2 per cent projected in October 2025. The updated outlook was published in the IMF’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook update and unveiled on Monday.
The upgrade forms part of the Fund’s broader assessment of global economic conditions, which it expects to remain relatively stable in the coming years. Analysts note that Nigeria’s improved outlook reflects gradual and widespread economic strengthening across the region rather than an isolated revision.
Nigeria’s revised forecast builds on a period of significant economic adjustment marked by policy reforms and efforts to restore macroeconomic balance. In October 2025, the IMF had projected 4.2 per cent growth for 2026, citing concerns around inflation, fiscal pressures, and structural constraints.
Since then, policymakers have pursued reforms to strengthen fiscal coordination, stabilize the macroeconomic environment, and boost productivity in key sectors. The IMF has consistently emphasized the importance of structural reforms in driving sustainable growth across emerging and developing economies, including Nigeria.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the regional growth forecast was revised upward from 4.0 per cent to 4.1 per cent for 2025 and from 4.3 per cent to 4.4 per cent for 2026, signaling a broadly shared recovery trend.
The IMF projects global growth of 3.3 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027, broadly in line with the 3.3 per cent outturn for 2025. According to the Fund, this stability reflects a balance between headwinds from shifting trade policies and tailwinds from technology-driven investment, including artificial intelligence, alongside accommodative financial conditions.
Global inflation is expected to ease further, with headline inflation projected to decline from 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 3.8 per cent in 2026, and further to 3.4 per cent in 2027.
