Nigeria’s oil sector lost an estimated N1.76tn in potential crude oil revenue after failing to meet its production quota set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries from January 2025 to January 2026.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission showed that crude oil production fell below the 1.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) target in nine months in 2025 and again in January 2026.
While production slightly exceeded the quota in January, June and July 2025, output remained below the benchmark in February, March, April, May, August, September, October, November and December.
The largest deficit occurred in September 2025, when production dropped to 1.39 mbpd, creating a shortfall of about 110,000 barrels per day. Cumulatively, the nine months of underperformance resulted in a gross shortfall of 18.7 million barrels.
After deducting surpluses recorded in January, June and July, the net annual deficit stood at 16.85 million barrels. In January 2026, production averaged 1.459 mbpd, adding another 1.27 million barrels in deficit.
Overall, Nigeria recorded a cumulative shortfall of 18.12 million barrels between January 2025 and January 2026.
Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria indicated that Bonny Light crude averaged $72.08 per barrel over the 10-month period reviewed.
Multiplying the total shortfall of 18.12 million barrels by the average price of $72.08 results in an estimated revenue loss of $1.31bn. At an exchange rate of N1,353 per dollar, this translates to approximately N1.76tn.
This loss occurred even as Nigeria’s total oil production for 2025 reached 530.41 million barrels, generating gross revenue of about N55.5tn at the same average price and exchange rate.
Analysts noted that the revenue estimate represents gross inflows and does not account for production costs, joint venture obligations, production-sharing contract recoveries, domestic supply commitments or crude oil theft.
They attributed the persistent shortfalls to structural challenges in the sector, including operational disruptions, infrastructure constraints, security concerns in the Niger Delta and fluctuating field performance.
For comparison, Nigeria exceeded its quota in January 2025 with output of 1.54 mbpd. However, the volatility in monthly production highlights ongoing instability in the oil-dependent economy.
The shortfall also comes as the Federal Government adopts a more conservative oil benchmark for the 2026 budget. The government has projected daily oil production of 1.84 million barrels (including condensate), a benchmark price of $64.85 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,400 per dollar.
Industry observers say the January 2026 production figure signals a weak start to the fiscal year and underscores the need for sustained reforms to stabilise output.
