The World Bank has projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 4.4 per cent in both 2026 and 2027, describing the outlook as the country’s fastest pace of economic expansion in more than a decade.
According to the Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report released in January 2026, Nigeria’s growth forecast for 2026 was revised upward to 4.4 per cent from the 3.7 per cent projection published in the June 2025 edition of the report. The 2027 growth estimate was retained at 4.4 per cent.
The upward revision reflects growing optimism about Nigeria’s medium-term economic prospects, supported by improving macroeconomic conditions despite lingering structural challenges.
The projection comes against the backdrop of recent economic data showing that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 3.46 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the third quarter of 2025, according to figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The World Bank said the expected growth will be driven largely by sustained expansion in the services sector, a rebound in agricultural production, and a modest recovery in non-oil industrial activities.
“Growth in Nigeria is forecast to strengthen to 4.4 per cent in both 2026 and 2027—the fastest pace in over a decade,” the Bank noted, adding that services and agriculture will remain the main pillars supporting economic performance over the forecast period.
The report also highlighted the importance of ongoing economic reforms, particularly in the tax system, as well as prudent monetary policy, in supporting growth and improving macroeconomic stability.
“Economic reforms, including in the tax system, along with continued prudent monetary policy, are expected to continue supporting activity,” the World Bank stated.
According to the Bank, these measures are expected to boost investor confidence, help moderate inflation, and strengthen fiscal and external balances. It added that higher oil production is likely to offset weaker global oil prices, supporting government revenues and easing external pressures.
The emphasis on non-oil sector growth underscores the gradual impact of Nigeria’s diversification efforts aimed at reducing reliance on crude oil exports. A stronger services sector and improved agricultural output could enhance job creation, support price stability, and broaden the government’s revenue base.
For policymakers and investors, the forecast offers cautious optimism that recent reforms may begin to yield tangible gains, even as Nigeria continues to navigate underlying economic vulnerabilities.
