The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has said the first three years of President Bola Tinubu’s administration were largely dedicated to restoring macroeconomic stability, although the benefits have yet to translate into meaningful welfare gains for most Nigerians.
The Chief Executive Officer of the CPPE, Dr Muda Yusuf, made this known while assessing the administration’s economic performance since assuming office in 2023.
According to Yusuf, the government inherited a difficult economic environment marked by foreign exchange illiquidity, multiple exchange rates, declining investor confidence, weakened external reserves, and significant fiscal challenges.
He noted that public finances were further strained by extensive Ways and Means financing and a fuel subsidy regime that had become a major source of fiscal leakages and economic distortions.
Yusuf identified the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of exchange rates as the two key reforms driving the administration’s economic stabilisation efforts.
He explained that ending fuel subsidies helped ease pressure on government finances and laid the foundation for a more sustainable downstream petroleum sector. Similarly, exchange rate unification improved transparency in the foreign exchange market and reduced opportunities for arbitrage.
However, Yusuf said both reforms came with substantial economic costs.
“The immediate consequence of the reforms was a significant inflationary shock. Energy prices surged, transportation and logistics costs escalated, production expenses increased sharply, and the depreciation of the naira amplified imported inflation pressures,” he said.
He added that the reforms contributed to declining real incomes, increased poverty levels, and a widespread cost-of-living crisis across the country.
Despite these challenges, Yusuf said there were clear signs of macroeconomic recovery. He pointed to stronger external reserves, which are approaching $50bn, a sustained trade surplus, improved investor confidence, and reduced exchange rate volatility since 2025.
According to him, the economy also recorded 11 consecutive months of disinflation from early 2025 to February 2026 before inflationary pressures resurfaced following the Iran–U.S.–Israel conflict in March 2026.
Yusuf further highlighted the strong performance of the capital market. He noted that the Nigerian Exchange All-Share Index increased from about 55,700 points in 2023 to over 254,000 points in 2026. Market capitalisation also rose from approximately N30tn to more than N160tn during the same period.
He said the discontinuation of Ways and Means financing improved monetary discipline and strengthened macroeconomic stability.
Yusuf also credited the emergence of domestic refining capacity, particularly through the Dangote Refinery, with improving energy security and reducing pressure on foreign exchange demand.
“An economy that produces more of what it consumes is inherently more resilient than one that depends excessively on imports,” he stated.
Despite the progress, Yusuf stressed that several challenges continue to hinder economic recovery. These include elevated inflation, weak purchasing power, fragile consumer confidence, insecurity, high energy costs, poor logistics infrastructure, policy inconsistency, and high interest rates.
He warned that insecurity remains a major obstacle to agricultural productivity, food security, rural livelihoods, and investment growth.
“No economy can achieve food security when farmers face persistent threats to their lives and livelihoods,” Yusuf said.
On fiscal sustainability, he noted that public debt rose to N159.3tn as of December 2025, driven partly by naira depreciation and the securitisation of N23tn in legacy Ways and Means liabilities.
While acknowledging concerns over debt sustainability, Yusuf expressed optimism that ongoing tax reforms could improve government revenue generation and strengthen fiscal capacity.
He also emphasised the importance of transparency, accountability, and good governance in maintaining public support for economic reforms.
“The long-term sustainability of economic reforms rests on the principle of shared sacrifice. Public confidence is strengthened when citizens perceive that the costs of adjustment are borne not only by households and businesses, but also by the political and governing elite,” he said.
Looking ahead, Yusuf said the next phase of reforms should focus on translating macroeconomic stability into inclusive growth through increased investment, higher productivity, improved energy and food security, stronger industrial competitiveness, and poverty reduction.
He maintained that the ultimate success of the administration’s reform programme would be measured not by economic indicators alone, but by improvements in the lives of ordinary Nigerians.
“Ultimately, the success of the reform agenda will not be measured solely by reserve accumulation, exchange rate stability, or stock market performance. It will be judged by its impact on jobs, incomes, living standards, and the quality of life of ordinary Nigerians,” he said.
