The heads of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group have warned that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is posing a growing threat to global food security by disrupting supply chains and driving up essential commodity prices.
Meeting as part of a coordination group established in early April, the institutions said the impact of the war remains “substantial, global, and highly asymmetric,” with low-income, energy-importing countries bearing the heaviest burden.
They noted that rising prices of oil, gas and fertilisers are worsening food insecurity and increasing risks of job losses, while also reducing export revenues for energy-producing countries in the region.
A key concern remains the continued disruption of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, which the institutions say has yet to return to normal operations.
The agencies warned that even if shipping stabilises, it could take time for global supplies of key commodities to recover to pre-conflict levels due to infrastructure damage and lingering disruptions.
According to the statement, fuel and fertiliser prices are likely to remain elevated for an extended period, increasing pressure across food systems, energy markets and industrial production.
The conflict has also triggered displacement, reduced tourism, disrupted employment and weakened economic activity in affected regions.
The warning comes ahead of major economic reports, including the IMF’s World Economic Outlook and the IEA’s monthly oil market update, both expected to assess the broader global impact of the crisis.
The institutions said they are sharing updated assessments and coordinating policy responses, particularly for countries most exposed to the shock. They added that financial assistance and policy advice would be provided where necessary.
Data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) shows that global food prices rose for a second consecutive month in March, driven largely by higher energy costs linked to the conflict.
The FAO Food Price Index increased by 2.4 per cent month-on-month, with gains recorded across cereals, meat, dairy, vegetable oils and sugar. While prices remain below the 2022 peak, they are trending upward again.
Vegetable oil and sugar prices recorded some of the sharpest increases, driven by stronger demand for biofuel feedstocks and shifts in agricultural production, while cereal markets saw mixed movements depending on supply conditions and import demand.
FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero warned that prolonged instability in the Middle East could further disrupt global food systems, particularly if energy supply routes remain constrained.
He noted that countries with high debt levels are especially vulnerable, as rising import costs could force them to reduce food purchases or downgrade quality, worsening food insecurity.
The FAO called for urgent policy responses, including securing alternative trade routes, protecting humanitarian supply chains and strengthening social safety nets.
It also urged long-term investment in agricultural infrastructure, storage systems and more efficient fertiliser use to improve resilience against future global shocks.
The combined warnings underscore how geopolitical instability in the Middle East is increasingly translating into economic pressure far beyond the region, affecting food prices, energy markets and vulnerable populations worldwide.
