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Global Economic Report: China’s economy grows by 18.3% in Q1-21, U.S. inflation increased by 0.6% in March

Business 360 by Business 360
April 19, 2021
in Finance, World
0
Global Economic Report: China’s economy grows by 18.3% in Q1-21, U.S. inflation increased by 0.6% in March

Rising gasoline prices have continued to exert upward pressures on consumer prices in the United States (U.S.). According to the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics, headline inflation increased by 0.6% in March the highest since August 2012.

This increase was primarily attributed to the price increase in the gasoline index (+9.1% m/m vs February: +6.4% m/m), which accounted for c.49.0% of the seasonally adjusted increase in the headline inflation.

Meanwhile, food prices (+0.1% m/m vs February: +0.2% m/m) rose at a slower pace, with the food at home index and the food away from home index growing by 0.1% m/m. On a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation grew by 90bps to 2.6% – the highest reading since August 2018 (+2.7% y/y) on account of a low base effect and improvement in economic activity. 

Experts at Cordros say the improvement in economic activities will slowly drive inflation higher on a m/m basis, and that the low base effect from the prior year to continue to stoke higher y/y readings.

CHINA

According to the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China’s economy grew by 18.3% y/y in Q1-21 – the highest since the NBS started keeping a year-on-year growth record in 1993. For us, the growth was bolstered by (1) solid industrial output, (2) robust export growth given the demand for China-made medical goods and (3) low base effect, and (4) rebound in consumer spending following the re-opening of the economy after the global lockdown.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, economy Watchers say that the economy grew marginally by 0.6% in Q1-21 (Q4-20: +3.2% q/q) largely due to travel restrictions in place over the Lunar New Year holiday amid the increase in new COVID-19 cases. 

A favorable base from Q1-20 contributed more to the positive outturn in Q1-21 even as export and industrial production increased at a moderate pace. Looking ahead, we expect the magnitude of expansion in GDP to moderate as the impact of the low base effect begins to dissipate. [Courtesy Cordros Capital]

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