The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has announced plans to engage key stakeholders ahead of the release of Nigeria’s December inflation data, amid growing projections that the country’s recent disinflationary trend may be temporarily halted at year-end.
The stakeholder engagement is scheduled for Monday and comes against the backdrop of multiple forecasts pointing to a short-term rise in headline inflation, driven largely by festive season spending and diminishing base-year effects following the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
CardinalStone projected headline inflation to rise to 32.07 per cent in December, noting that the increase is expected to be temporary and reversed in January 2026. Similarly, Coronation Asset Management forecast a sharp year-end uptick in inflation, attributing the expected rise primarily to base-year effects.
In its macroeconomic update, Coronation stated that December inflation is likely to reverse the ongoing disinflationary trend, largely due to statistical effects. The firm also projected a month-on-month increase in headline inflation, reflecting festive demand pressures, elevated transport activity during the holiday season, and continued cost pass-through from higher logistics and service-sector prices. It added that food prices would remain under pressure due to tighter market supplies, insecurity in key producing regions, and increased Yuletide consumption.
AIICO Capital echoed similar sentiments in its own macroeconomic update released ahead of the inflation data. The firm projected December headline inflation to fall within the range of 31.4–32.4 per cent year-on-year, citing the combined impact of base-year effects and festive spending.
According to AIICO Capital, core inflation is expected to ease slightly on a month-on-month basis but rise sharply year-on-year. The firm attributed the anticipated monthly moderation to naira appreciation at the official foreign exchange window and a reduction in petrol prices during December. It noted that the naira strengthened by 76 basis points to N1,435.76 per dollar at the official window, while petrol prices declined by 14.7 per cent following a price cut by Dangote Refinery.
Calling on stakeholders to participate in the engagement, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) warned that expectations of a December inflation spike could be misinterpreted without proper context. In an email invitation, the private sector think tank noted that inflation had moderated to 14 per cent in November 2025 following the CPI rebasing earlier in the year.
The NESG explained that any spike in December inflation would likely be “artificial,” arising from base effects linked to the arithmetic computation of inflation rather than a deterioration in underlying economic conditions. It cautioned that poor understanding of these dynamics could heighten uncertainty, weaken confidence in official statistics, and complicate policy and business decisions.
The group stressed the importance of transparency and clear communication by the NBS, noting that proactive engagement with data users and stakeholders would help clarify inflation dynamics, data trends, and the interpretation of the December CPI outcome.
In early 2025, the NBS rebased the Consumer Price Index, updating the price reference period to 2024 from 2019. The statistics agency said the rebasing was aimed at better reflecting current price volatility and providing a clearer picture of economic trends in Nigeria.
