With Nigeria’s presidential election scheduled for January 16, 2027, contrasting assessments of President Bola Tinubu’s first term are bringing the economy, security, employment and household living standards to the centre of the campaign.
A street survey conducted by African Business among 10 people in Lagos produced widely differing assessments of the administration, with individual scores ranging from 20 per cent to 90 per cent.
Because only 10 people were interviewed, the exercise should not be interpreted as a representative opinion poll of Lagos or Nigeria. It nevertheless illustrates some of the arguments being made by supporters and critics as the campaign develops.
Respondents who viewed the administration positively pointed to what they regarded as improvements in electricity supply, road infrastructure, the national minimum wage and the government’s response to Boko Haram and other security threats.
Those who assessed the administration negatively concentrated heavily on economic conditions, particularly the cost of food and transportation, unemployment, fuel prices and the reduced purchasing power of household incomes.
These competing assessments reflect broader issues already shaping the 2027 campaign. Recent reporting has similarly identified economic hardship, security and employment among the subjects dominating political debate ahead of the January election.
Economy Moves to Centre of Campaign
Tinubu came into office in May 2023 and quickly introduced major economic reforms, including the removal of the petrol subsidy and changes to the foreign-exchange system.
The administration has defended its reforms as necessary to address longstanding structural weaknesses in public finances and the economy.
For households, however, the political significance of those reforms is increasingly tied to whether improvements in broader economic indicators translate into lower pressure on family budgets, stronger employment opportunities and improved purchasing power.
That distinction between macroeconomic performance and household experience is likely to remain important throughout the campaign.
For the government, infrastructure projects, reforms and other policy achievements provide material on which to campaign. Opposition parties, meanwhile, are placing significant emphasis on the cost of living, insecurity, unemployment and governance.
Voters Assess Different Measures of Performance
The Lagos interviews also demonstrate why assessments of government performance can vary substantially.
A voter who prioritises infrastructure or a particular improvement in public services may evaluate the administration differently from a household whose primary concern is the price of food, transportation or rent.
Likewise, security conditions differ substantially across the federation, meaning experiences in Lagos may differ considerably from those in communities affected by insurgency, banditry or other forms of violent insecurity.
That makes broader national polling and official economic data important complements to anecdotal interviews when assessing public opinion.
What the small survey does capture is the range of issues Nigerians may weigh as the election approaches.
January Election Draws Closer
Official campaigning for the January 16 presidential and National Assembly elections began in August, with political parties increasingly presenting competing approaches to the economy, security and employment.
For Tinubu, the campaign provides an opportunity to defend the policy choices of his first term and explain what his administration says those reforms are intended to achieve.
His opponents are expected to scrutinise both those policies and their effects on households.
The electorate will ultimately determine how much weight to place on each issue when voting.
The contrasting views recorded in Lagos therefore offer a snapshot of a broader national debate: not simply whether economic reforms have occurred, but how Nigerians assess their results in their own lives as another presidential election approaches.
