Nigeria’s crude oil production remains below the quota allocated by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), despite recording a modest increase in output in March.
According to the April edition of OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report, Nigeria produced an average of 1.38 million barrels per day (mbpd) in March. The figure represents an increase of 69,000 barrels per day from the 1.31 mbpd recorded in February. However, the output still falls short of the country’s 1.5 mbpd quota by 117,000 barrels per day.
The latest data shows that Nigeria has now failed to meet its OPEC production allocation for eight consecutive months since July 2025. In February alone, production dropped by 146,000 barrels per day on a month-on-month basis, widening the gap between actual output and the quota.
Although there was a slight improvement earlier in the year, the gains proved short-lived. Production increased from 1.422 mbpd in December 2025 to 1.459 mbpd in January, but fell sharply in February before recovering partially in March.
Earlier figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had also indicated that Nigeria’s crude production weakened towards the end of 2025. Output declined from 1.436 mbpd in November to 1.422 mbpd in December before rebounding slightly in January.
Data from 2025 shows that Nigeria fell below its OPEC quota in nine months of the year, meeting or slightly exceeding the target only in January, June, and July. The country began 2025 strongly with production of 1.54 mbpd in January, exceeding its OPEC allocation by about 38,700 barrels per day.
However, the momentum slowed in February when output dropped to 1.47 mbpd and declined further to 1.40 mbpd in March, marking one of the widest shortfalls during the year.
Although production improved modestly in April and May at 1.49 mbpd and 1.45 mbpd respectively, Nigeria remained below the quota until June when output rose to 1.51 mbpd. The country maintained that level in July before slipping below the benchmark again in the following months.
Figures recorded in the first quarter of 2026 are also below the Federal Government’s budget benchmark for crude production.
Meanwhile, the Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission recently stated that Nigeria’s combined crude and condensate output reached 1.8 mbpd in March.
However, a commission official told The PUNCH that the recovery only began in mid-March after oil assets undergoing turnaround maintenance resumed operations. The official expressed optimism that crude production could meet the OPEC quota in April.
Nigeria’s inability to reach its production target has continued to affect export earnings and domestic refining operations. Local refineries have also struggled with limited crude supply.
In response, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) has initiated efforts to secure crude oil supplies for the Dangote Petroleum Refinery through third-party international traders.
A senior official at NNPC disclosed that the move was aimed at sustaining domestic refining operations. According to the official, the company is leveraging its global crude trading network to source third-party crude at competitive international market prices.
The OPEC report also highlighted production adjustments by other member states. Saudi Arabia reduced its output significantly, while Iraq also recorded a sharp production cut.
Similarly, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait reported notable declines in production during the period.
In contrast, output increased in Venezuela, Congo, and Libya, while Algeria recorded only a marginal drop.
OPEC noted that totals for the entire group were not fully available due to incomplete data from some members. It also clarified that Saudi Arabia’s supply to the market in March stood at 7.76 mbpd, while its actual production was 6.97 mbpd. No data was recorded for Gabon and the crisis-hit Iran.
