The OPEC is leaning towards resuming oil output increases from April, according to three OPEC+ sources, as the group positions for peak summer demand and firmer prices driven by tensions between the United States and Iran.
The move would enable OPEC leader Saudi Arabia and other key members, including the United Arab Emirates, to regain market share. This comes as some OPEC+ members such as Russia and Iran continue to face Western sanctions, while Kazakhstan grapples with production setbacks.
Eight OPEC+ producers — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman — are scheduled to meet on March 1 to review output policy.
The eight members had previously raised production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day from April to the end of December 2025, equivalent to roughly three per cent of global demand. However, they froze additional planned increases from January through March 2026 due to seasonally weaker consumption.
The global benchmark, Brent crude, is currently trading near $68 per barrel. This remains close to the six-month high of $71.89 recorded in January amid heightened geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran.
Market analysts say the group’s decision in March will be closely watched, as it could shape supply dynamics and price movements heading into the second quarter of 2026.
