Daily petrol receipts decline to 38.7 million litres as consumption rises to 44.4 million litres, widening the gap between supply and demand.
Nigeria’s daily petrol supply fell by 23 per cent in September 2026, as declining domestic deliveries and lower imports reduced the volume of fuel entering the market despite increased production at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
The September factsheet of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), as reported by THISDAY, showed that total petrol receipts declined to 38.7 million litres per day from 50.5 million litres in August.
The drop came as estimated daily consumption increased by seven per cent to 44.4 million litres, leaving a supply gap of approximately 5.7 million litres per day based on the reported figures.
The latest data indicate that Nigeria received 11.8 million fewer litres of petrol daily in September than in the preceding month, a development that coincided with higher pump prices in some cities, where petrol reportedly exceeded ₦1,400 per litre.
Domestic deliveries and imports decline
The NMDPRA figures showed that domestic petrol receipts fell by 21 per cent, from 35.9 million litres per day in August to 28.5 million litres in September.
Imports also declined, dropping by 30 per cent from 14.6 million litres to 10.2 million litres per day.
The simultaneous decline in locally supplied fuel and imports reduced the volume available to marketers, distributors and consumers.
Although the figures point to a tightening supply position, the monthly comparison alone does not establish the precise causes of the decline or explain the price movements in individual locations.
Dangote refinery raises output
The decline in total market receipts occurred despite higher average petrol production at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
According to the report, the refinery increased its average daily petrol output by 13 per cent, from 41.94 million litres in August to 47.22 million litres in September.
Its average capacity utilisation also rose from 105.21 per cent to 105.98 per cent, above its stated installed capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.
However, the volume of petrol supplied by the refinery to the domestic market reportedly declined by about one-fifth, while exports increased.
The figures highlight the distinction between refinery production and the amount of fuel delivered to the domestic market. Production can rise without a corresponding increase in local supply if the distribution of output between domestic sales, exports and inventory changes.
Supply gap puts pressure on consumers
The decline in receipts against rising consumption places additional pressure on the downstream petroleum market, where supply availability, distribution costs, foreign-exchange conditions and pricing decisions can influence retail prices.
Higher petrol prices affect household transport expenditure and businesses that depend on road transport, generators and other fuel-intensive operations. Increased logistics costs can also feed into food prices and the cost of moving goods across the country.
The reported September figures will therefore be important for assessing whether the supply contraction was temporary or part of a more sustained change in domestic fuel availability.
For policymakers and market participants, the key issues include ensuring predictable supplies, monitoring domestic deliveries and imports, and improving transparency around refinery production, exports and local distribution.
