Nigeria’s inflation is showing signs of cooling, according to the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI). The organization affirmed that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revised Consumer Price Index (CPI) methodology is credible, technically sound, and aligned with international standards.
The CPI rebasing exercise, which used a twelve-month average for 2024 as the base year, avoids artificial inflation spikes often seen after long gaps between base years. The LCCI emphasized that this is a legitimate statistical correction and not manipulation of inflation figures.
December 2025 Figures Highlight Disinflation (H2)
Data from December 2025 indicates a sharp slowdown in inflationary pressure:
- Headline inflation: 15.15%, down from 34.80% in December 2024
- Month-on-month inflation: more than halved
- 12-month average headline inflation: 23.01%
- Core inflation: 23.49%
Food prices drove much of the relief, with staples such as grains, vegetables, garri, beans, and tomatoes showing declining costs. The trend signals gradual disinflation rather than abrupt price reversals.
LCCI Calls for Cautious Optimism (H2)
Despite the slowdown, the LCCI urged careful optimism. The organization highlighted ongoing structural inflation pressures from energy costs, interest rates, and logistics. To consolidate gains, the chamber recommends:
- Strengthening agricultural supply chains to stabilize staple prices.
- Combining fiscal discipline with monetary support to ease lending rates sustainably.
- Promoting non-oil exports and remittances to stabilize the Naira and improve foreign exchange inflows.
- Streamlining regulations, improving infrastructure, and reducing business costs.
According to the LCCI, the revised CPI methodology reflects improved measurement, and December 2025 figures show genuine economic stabilization. However, full recovery will require coordinated policy action, continued support for agriculture, energy reform, and measures to ease the cost of doing business.
By adopting a twelve-month average for 2024 as the base year (2024 = 100), rather than a single-month reference, the NBS prudently avoided artificial inflation spikes that often occur after long gaps between base years, particularly relevant given Nigeria’s 15-year shift from the 2009 base. This approach strengthens analytical accuracy, preserves policy relevance, and enhances the credibility of inflation measurement. The NBS’s clear communication and distinction between statistical base effects and underlying economic conditions also helped reinforce transparency and public confidence.
