President Bola Tinubu’s new tax incentive for deep offshore oil and gas projects could unlock about $50 billion in investments and increase Nigeria’s crude oil and condensate production by nearly one million barrels per day within the next four to five years, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The Executive Commissioner for Development and Production at the NUPRC, Enorense Amadasu, disclosed this during an interview on NTA, where he represented the Commission Chief Executive, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan.
In a statement issued on Wednesday by NUPRC Head of Media and Corporate Communications, Eniola Akinkuotu, Amadasu said the Deep Offshore Oil and Gas Projects Incentives (Tax Remission) Executive Order, 2026, signed by Tinubu could accelerate investment decisions on major projects that have already received regulatory approvals.
“The Deep Offshore Oil and Gas Project Incentives (Tax Remission) Executive Order 2026 recently signed by President Bola Tinubu has the potential not only to unlock $50bn in investments but can also create an additional one million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate from deep offshore fields,” the statement quoted Amadasu as saying.
The executive order, also known as Executive Order 9, is aimed at improving the economics of deep offshore oil and gas projects by providing tax incentives and a more predictable framework for investors.
Amadasu said the reform could usher in a new phase of investment in Nigeria’s offshore petroleum industry, where projects typically require billions of dollars and several years to progress from discovery to production.
He said Nigeria had already produced more than 4.6 billion barrels from deep offshore assets.
“We are on the right path all thanks to Mr President. It will be a huge leap. As of today, we have mined over 4.6 billion barrels from deep offshore assets. In cargo terms, that is about 5,000 tankers,” Amadasu said.
According to the NUPRC official, Nigeria currently produces about 1.7 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate, with deep offshore fields accounting for about 24 per cent of the country’s oil production and 19 per cent of its gas output.
He said the new framework would create stronger opportunities for investment and support the development of the next generation of deep offshore projects.
Amadasu disclosed that nine projects had already received approved Field Development Plans (FDPs), leaving the operators to take Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) before development can commence.
“So, where will these volumes be coming from? Nine of these projects have approved FDPs, so the next step expected is the FID in the near to midterm. The $10bn Bonga South will come in 2027, and within the next four to five years, we are expecting almost an additional one million barrels per day,” he said.
The projected addition of nearly one million barrels per day would represent a significant increase in Nigeria’s current production and could substantially improve the country’s oil revenue outlook if the projects proceed as projected.
Amadasu said the executive order was expected to encourage international oil companies and other investors to move faster in taking Final Investment Decisions on approved projects.
He explained that the reform establishes a transparent and rules-based investment framework designed to support the development of major deep offshore projects.
The incentive is particularly significant because deep offshore developments are among the most capital-intensive projects in the petroleum industry. They require substantial spending on drilling, floating production facilities, subsea infrastructure and specialised logistics, making fiscal terms and regulatory certainty important considerations for investors.
Beyond oil production, Amadasu said the anticipated developments could generate opportunities in other areas of the economy, particularly the marine and logistics sectors.
He said Nigeria would need to strengthen its marine and logistics capacity to support the expected increase in offshore activity.
“It aims to make Nigeria the regional hub for deep offshore projects,” Amadasu said.
He added that other potential benefits included increased oil and gas reserves, technology and skills transfer and the creation of employment opportunities.
Nigeria has been seeking to revive investment in its deep offshore petroleum sector as the government targets higher crude oil production and attempts to reverse years of underinvestment in major upstream projects.
The signing of the Deep Offshore Oil and Gas Project Incentives Executive Order forms part of the Tinubu administration’s broader efforts to improve the competitiveness of Nigeria’s oil and gas fiscal regime following the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act.
With nine projects already holding approved Field Development Plans, the success of the new incentive will depend largely on whether the improved fiscal framework can translate existing regulatory approvals into Final Investment Decisions and, ultimately, increased production.
If the projects proceed as projected, Nigeria could attract billions of dollars in fresh investment and add almost one million barrels of crude oil and condensate per day to national production over the next five years.
