According to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensates, increased for the fifth consecutive month in August 2024, rising by 2.4% month-on-month (m/m) to 1.57 million barrels per day (mb/d), up from 1.53 mb/d in July. The improvement in output is attributed to increased production volumes from key terminals such as Forcados (+16.0% m/m), Bonny (+6.4% m/m), and Odudu (+4.6% m/m). However, production declines were recorded at the Qua Iboe (-8.0% m/m), Agbami (-6.4% m/m), and Escravos (-4.4% m/m) terminals.
Despite the monthly increase, Nigeria’s overall crude oil production remains below pre-COVID levels, where output averaged 2.14 mb/d in Q1-2020. The lingering effects of insecurity, decaying infrastructure, and low sector investment, compounded by the exit of international oil companies (IOCs) and unresolved issues surrounding the approval of oil asset transfers, continue to hinder full recovery. Additionally, while efforts to combat crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism are underway, these issues still present significant risks to Nigeria’s oil production in the near term.
Nevertheless, the Nigerian government remains optimistic about the sector’s prospects, though analysts are more cautious. Based on current trends, analysts have maintained their crude oil production estimate, including condensates, at 1.52 mb/d for 2024, in contrast to the Federal Government’s target of 1.78 mb/d, as outlined in the 2024 budget.
Nigeria’s oil industry continues to be a key revenue source, but the sector’s full potential remains constrained by these persistent challenges. With ongoing efforts to address oil theft and boost infrastructure, future output could improve, though uncertainty remains.
