Growth in industrial and agricultural activities supports fifth consecutive month of expansion, despite moderation in the services sector.
Nigeria’s private sector activity strengthened marginally in October, with the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 53.2 points from 53.0 points in September, extending the economy’s expansion streak to five consecutive months.
Data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed that the improvement was primarily driven by stronger business activity in the industrial and agricultural sectors, while the services sector maintained its expansionary position despite a slight moderation.
The composite PMI, which measures the performance of business activities across key sectors of the economy, remained above the 50-point threshold separating expansion from contraction.
The industrial sector recorded its third consecutive month of expansion, with its PMI increasing to 52.6 points from 52.0 points in September.
The improvement reflected stronger output, new orders and employment levels, alongside an increase in raw material inventories, indicating improved production activity across selected industrial segments.
Stronger readings were recorded in cement, motor vehicles and assembly, and wood products. However, these gains were partly offset by weaker activity in mining and quarrying, as the crude petroleum and natural gas subsector slipped into contraction.
The services sector PMI declined to 52.7 points from 53.2 points in September but remained above the expansion threshold for the fourth consecutive month.
Although output and employment indices increased, new orders and inventories weakened during the period.
The moderation reflected softer business activity in arts, entertainment and recreation, human health and social services, and trade. These declines were partly offset by improvements in professional, scientific and technical services, finance and insurance, and educational services.
Agriculture remained the strongest-performing sector, with its PMI rising to 54.7 points from 53.1 points in September, extending its expansion streak to 27 consecutive months.
The improvement was supported by stronger performance in general farming activities, new orders, employment and inventories.
The October figures indicate that Nigeria’s private sector continues to demonstrate resilience, with agricultural production and industrial activity providing important support to overall business expansion.
Looking ahead, private sector activity is expected to remain in expansion during the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by the main harvest season, which typically runs between September and November, as well as increased consumer spending and business activity ahead of the festive period.
However, elevated operating expenses and persistent pressure on household purchasing power could constrain the pace of growth, particularly for businesses dependent on discretionary consumer spending.
