The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) has approved a 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) increase in oil production quotas for September, marking the fourth consecutive monthly output hike as the alliance continues reversing supply cuts introduced in 2023.
The decision was announced on Sunday after a virtual meeting involving seven key OPEC+ members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia.
The September increase effectively completes, on paper, the reversal of one layer of production cuts implemented in 2023 to prevent a global oil glut.
OPEC+ is also expected to maintain production quotas at current levels for the remainder of the year after the September increase while monitoring global oil market conditions.
The latest adjustment continues the alliance’s gradual strategy of restoring crude oil supplies despite ongoing geopolitical tensions involving Iran, which have disrupted production and exports across parts of the Middle East.
OPEC+ has continued raising production quotas even amid the conflict because the approved increases have had only a limited impact on actual global oil supply.
Several member countries have struggled to raise production to their allocated quotas due to technical constraints, international sanctions, and disruptions affecting oil flows through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
The September quota increase provides greater flexibility for major Gulf producers, particularly Saudi Arabia, to increase output once regional oil exports return to normal.
Although the alliance is expected to pause further production increases after September, the plan could change depending on market conditions and geopolitical developments.
The latest decision follows OPEC+’s approval of an identical 188,000 bpd production increase for August.
The September adjustment mirrors similar quota increases approved for June, July and August, making it the fourth consecutive monthly increase of the same volume.
It also completes, at least on paper, the reversal of two layers of production cuts introduced in 2023, amounting to about 3.5 million barrels per day, excluding the United Arab Emirates’ share.
However, much of the planned supply restoration has yet to materialise because several OPEC+ members lack the capacity to significantly increase production, leaving Saudi Arabia with most of the alliance’s spare production capacity.
For Nigeria, the latest OPEC+ decision comes as the country continues to strengthen its standing within the alliance by consistently exceeding its assigned crude oil production quota.
According to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria produced an average of 1.56 million barrels per day of crude oil in June 2026, the country’s highest monthly output since April 2020.
June also marked the second consecutive month Nigeria exceeded its OPEC production quota after recording average crude production of 1.53 million barrels per day in May.
Before then, the last time Nigeria surpassed its OPEC allocation was in July 2025, reflecting sustained improvements in production efficiency and intensified efforts to curb crude oil theft.
The latest OPEC+ production increase is particularly significant for Nigeria as the country works towards achieving the 1.84 million barrels per day production benchmark contained in the 2026 federal budget.
Continued improvements in crude production, coupled with greater flexibility under OPEC+, could help Nigeria move closer to its production target and strengthen government oil revenues.
The improved production performance is already supporting stronger financial results for NNPC Limited.
According to the company’s latest monthly financial and operational report, NNPC posted a profit after tax of N535 billion in June 2026, representing a 15.8% increase from N462 billion recorded in May.
The national oil company also generated N4.39 trillion in revenue during the month, with the June profit marking its highest monthly earnings since August 2025.
For Nigeria, the combination of rising crude oil production, improved profitability at NNPC, and OPEC+’s continued restoration of supply supports the Federal Government’s strategy of increasing oil output to boost fiscal revenues, strengthen foreign exchange earnings, and improve the likelihood of meeting the production assumptions underpinning the 2026 budget.
