Marketers of petroleum products say petrol prices in Nigeria may soon drop to about N1,200 per litre following a fresh reduction in ex-depot prices by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
The anticipated price relief comes as global crude oil prices continue to decline after a reported peace deal between the United States and Iran, which has eased tensions in the Middle East and stabilised energy markets.
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery recently slashed its petrol gantry price by N75 per litre, reducing it from N1,250 to N1,175. The refinery also adjusted its coastal price from N1,595,790 per metric tonne to N1,495,215, with the new rates taking effect from midnight on June 16, 2026.
Following the adjustment, depot operators have also begun lowering prices to about N1,180 per litre, according to market data from Petroleumprice.ng. However, retail pump prices have remained largely unchanged, with many filling stations still selling petrol at around N1,280 per litre.
Marketers attribute the delay in pump price reduction to the need to clear old stock purchased at higher rates, warning that immediate price cuts could result in significant losses.
In a circular sent to fuel marketers, the Dangote refinery explained that the price review was driven by the easing of geopolitical tensions that had previously pushed energy prices higher.
Market operators expect retail prices to begin adjusting within days as new stock enters the distribution chain. The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Chinedu Ukadike, said petrol could soon sell between N1,200 and N1,250 per litre in Lagos, while other regions may experience slightly higher prices.
He noted that price adjustments in the downstream sector are not immediate due to existing inventories bought at higher costs.
“Once the Dangote refinery announces a new price, there is usually a pause in loading to allow marketers clear old stock,” he explained, adding that new pricing levels typically reflect within 24 to 48 hours.
Ukadike further stated that prices depend on location, transportation costs, and distribution dynamics, but confirmed expectations of a downward trend across the country.
However, the spokesman of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria, Joseph Obele, expressed concern that imported fuel is currently appearing cheaper than locally refined products. He called on the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) to issue more import licences to ensure market balance.
On social media, many Nigerians have also questioned why the N75 reduction has not translated into immediate relief at filling stations, especially amid falling crude oil prices.
Crude oil prices had surged above $100 per barrel during earlier geopolitical tensions but have now dropped below $80 per barrel following the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran and the reopening of key global supply routes.
Reports indicate that Brent crude fell from about $87 per barrel to $78 per barrel within days, easing pressure on fuel production costs globally.
In Nigeria, petrol prices had previously risen from around N830 per litre to about N1,300 per litre during the peak of the crisis, affecting transport, food, and production costs nationwide.
With the latest developments, analysts expect further reductions in pump prices if global crude stability continues and domestic supply remains consistent. Some projections suggest petrol could fall to as low as N900 per litre in the coming weeks if current trends persist.
However, refinery sources note that pricing adjustments also depend on the cost of crude already in storage, meaning reductions may be gradual rather than immediate.
