Global food prices rose by 5% in the two months following the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz after conflict erupted in the Middle East in late February 2026, according to a new analysis by the World Bank.
The increase pushed food prices to their highest level since January 2024, with oils and meals recording the sharpest gains while grain prices rose more moderately.
According to the World Bank, the oils and meals segment surged by 10 per cent during the period due to rising crude oil prices and expanded biofuel blending mandates in major markets such as Indonesia, Thailand, and the United States.
Grain prices increased by three per cent over the same period, supported by what the bank described as “ample global supplies,” despite wheat and maize posting quarterly gains of nine per cent and four per cent respectively amid drought concerns and rising production costs.
The World Bank noted that overall food prices are currently two per cent higher than they were a year earlier, describing the global response as relatively “contained” compared to previous crises.
The bank compared the latest development with the early months of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, when food prices surged by 15 per cent within a similar two-month period.
“Even so, the food price response has been far more contained than in early 2022,” the World Bank stated, attributing the situation to ample grain and oilseed supplies and the fact that many Northern Hemisphere farmers had secured fertiliser supplies before the conflict began.
The report explained that the current market shock is being transmitted mainly through higher energy and input costs rather than direct disruption of major food export routes.
Oils and meals have remained the most affected category, with soybean oil prices rising 16 per cent in the first quarter and 25 per cent year-on-year due to strong renewable diesel demand and new United States biofuel targets.
Palm oil and soybean prices also strengthened on increased biodiesel demand and renewed Chinese purchases, although the World Bank said sufficient edible oil supplies helped limit steeper increases.
The report highlighted worsening food security concerns in import-dependent regions, particularly across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, where food inflation accelerated following disruptions caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure.
According to the World Bank, food inflation had been relatively stable in the region before the conflict but rose sharply in Gulf economies after supply chains were affected.
The report also identified Iran as one of the most vulnerable countries, noting that food inflation had already reached 98 per cent in February 2026 before the latest escalation.
Outside the Middle East, food inflation also increased in Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as South Asia, reflecting patterns similar to those seen after the 2022 Ukraine conflict.
Looking ahead, the World Bank projected moderate increases in food commodity prices in 2026, with grains expected to rise by two per cent, oils and meals by four per cent, and the overall food price index by about 2.5 per cent.
However, the bank warned that risks remain “tilted firmly to the upside,” especially if supply disruptions continue beyond mid-year or energy prices remain elevated.
Meanwhile, the World Food Programme estimated that as many as 45 million additional people could face acute hunger in 2026 if the disruptions persist, with more than half of those affected expected to come from Sub-Saharan Africa and the MENAAP region.
