An impending super El Niño could cost affected African countries between $10 billion and $20 billion and trigger mass migration from severely impacted areas, the African Development Bank’s top climate expert has warned.
The warning, reported by Reuters, comes as the World Meteorological Organization confirms that El Niño conditions have already developed and are expected to peak between late 2026 and early 2027.
The African Development Bank estimates that African farmers have already suffered nearly $330 million in lost income this year as the climate phenomenon intensifies.
Maize prices, a major concern for food security across the continent, are also expected to double as agricultural production comes under pressure.
Fisheries are likely to face additional challenges, with productivity projected to decline by between one and four per cent as rising sea temperatures disrupt marine ecosystems.
Countries considered most exposed to the impact include Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi and Nigeria.
The AfDB said these countries face heightened vulnerability because of ongoing conflicts, institutional fragility or limited fiscal buffers, leaving their governments with less capacity to respond to major climate shocks.
The economic consequences could extend beyond agriculture, with the development bank warning that damage to infrastructure could disrupt trade and wider economic activity.
Financial institutions could also face increased credit risks as governments, businesses and households struggle to recover from climate-related losses.
The AfDB described the situation as a growing “climate finance trap”, in which countries with limited fiscal space are repeatedly forced to divert resources away from long-term development investments to respond to increasingly frequent climate disasters.
The bank said the potential economic losses could further strain public finances and weaken the ability of vulnerable countries to invest in infrastructure, health, education and other critical development priorities.
Beyond the economic impact, the AfDB warned that worsening climate conditions could force large numbers of people to leave severely affected communities in search of food, livelihoods and safer living conditions.
The bank plans to hold a seminar in September to assess the potential impact of El Niño on its existing investment pipeline.
The meeting will also explore additional funding opportunities through the Green Climate Fund and other international climate finance mechanisms.
The AfDB said mobilising additional climate finance would be critical to helping vulnerable African economies strengthen resilience and manage the economic and social consequences of the expected climate shock.
